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Economic News

Headline 4.3% vs Underlying 3.7%: Which Inflation Number Drove Today's Decision?

Ask how high inflation is in Australia right now and there are two honest answers. One is 4.3%. The other is 3.7%. Both come from the Consumer Price Index, both are cited by the Reserve Bank, and both were in the background when theMonetary …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Fuel, Data Centres and AI Gadgets: The Unusual Mix Pushing Prices Higher

Inflation shocks usually have a recognisable shape. A drought lifts food prices. A currency slump makes imports dearer. A wage surge flows through to services. The mix the Reserve Bank described on 3 November 2026 is more unusual: a geopolitical oil shock, anInvestmentboom in …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Excess Demand Today, Balance Next Year: The RBA's Road Map for a Cooling Economy

Think of the economy as a road with a speed limit. Drive within it and prices stay broadly stable. Push beyond it for too long andInflationbuilds. In the language of the November 2026 Statement onMonetary Policy(SMP), Australia is still over the limit: "The economy …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Growth Forecast Cut to 1.3% for End-2027: The Price of Fighting Inflation

Central banks rarely say outright that they want the economy to slow. The Reserve Bank's November 2026 forecasts come close. Buried in the Statement onMonetary Policy(SMP) table is a revision that captures the cost of theInflationfight: GDP growth over the year to December 2027 …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Restrictive, Says the RBA: What "Financial Conditions" Actually Means for You

Four words in the November 2026 Statement onMonetary Policy(SMP) carry more weight than they might appear to: "Financial conditions are judged to be restrictive." For economists, it is a technical assessment. For households and businesses, it describes something they are likely already feeling.

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Will Energy Prices Ease? The Big Assumption Underpinning the New Forecasts

In the November 2026 Statement onMonetary Policy(SMP), released at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November alongside the decision to lift the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, one assumption matters more than most: what happens to energy prices.

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Next CPI on 25 November: The Data Point That Could Shape December's Call

Five weeks separate the Reserve Bank's November decision from its final meeting of the year. In that window, one scheduled release stands out on the RBA's own homepage: the next monthlyConsumer Price Indexupdate, due on 25 November 2026. The nextMonetary Policydecision follows at 2.30 …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Six to Three: A Divided RBA Board Lifts the Cash Rate to 4.85%

Six votes to three. That is the arithmetic behind the latest move in Australian interest rates, and it marks a clear change of tone from the Board's previous meeting. When the cash rate was raised from 4.35% to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, the …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

4.85% From Wednesday: Five Hikes Now Stacked Into a Single Calendar Year

February, March, May, September and now November. With Tuesday's decision, 2026 has delivered five increases to the cash rate target in one calendar year, and the year is not over yet. The latest quarter-point rise was announced at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026

Three Members Wanted to Wait. Why the Majority Pushed Ahead Anyway

Not every member of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board was convinced that another rate rise was needed. On 3 November 2026, three members voted to leave the cash rate target at 4.60%. The other six voted to raise it by 25 basis points …

Sonal Goyal | 03 November 2026
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