With the cash rate now at 4.85% and one meeting left in 2026, the monthly CPI update due on 25 November is the next major Inflation reading the Board will see.

Five weeks separate the Reserve Bank's November decision from its final meeting of the year. In that window, one scheduled release stands out on the RBA's own homepage: the next monthly Consumer Price Index update, due on 25 November 2026. The next Monetary Policy decision follows at 2.30 pm on 8 December.

That sequencing gives the November CPI release unusual weight. It will be the first official inflation data published after the Board lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% on 3 November, and the last major inflation reading before December's call.

Where the monthly numbers stand

The recent trend in headline inflation explains why the release is being watched closely. On the RBA's inflation page, the year-ended monthly headline CPI figures read:

  • July 2026: 3.5%
  • August 2026: 4.0%
  • September 2026: 4.3%

That is a rise of 0.8 percentage points in two months. Governor Michele Bullock summarised the broader picture to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee on 28 October: "Recently, inflation has been around 3½ to 4 per cent in year-ended terms."

Headline inflation is not the whole story. The RBA's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, the trimmed mean, was 3.7% in year-ended terms in the September quarter, and 1.0% in the quarter in seasonally adjusted terms.

The two measures answer different questions. The 4.3% headline figure for September tells households how much prices across the CPI basket have risen over the year. The 3.7% trimmed mean tells the Board how much of that inflation looks persistent and widespread.

What the Board said it is watching

The 3 November statement put particular weight on the breadth of inflation. "Inflation remains elevated and recent data indicate that it is broadly based," it said. It also warned that "there is an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded."

The November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) forecasts headline CPI inflation of 4.5% in December 2026, up from 3.6% in the August forecasts, and trimmed mean inflation of 3.6% at the same point, up from 3.3%. These are forecasts, conditional on assumptions including a cash rate path drawn from market pricing as at 28 October.

The SMP states that "Headline and underlying inflation are expected to remain above 3 per cent until end-2027". Its forecast table shows headline inflation of 2.7% and trimmed mean of 2.9% at December 2027, meaning the RBA expects inflation to stay above 3% through much of 2027.

Against that backdrop, the 25 November release offers an early check on whether price pressures are tracking the RBA's new forecasts, running ahead of them, or easing. The RBA has not said how any particular result would affect its decision, and this article does not attempt to predict one.

A divided Board raises the stakes

The November decision was not unanimous. Six members voted to raise the cash rate to 4.85%, while three preferred to hold it at 4.60%. That is a marked change from 29 September, when the Board voted unanimously to lift the rate from 4.35% to 4.60%.

A split vote shows that members weighed the same information differently. That makes incoming data, including the CPI release, part of the evidence each member will consider in December. The Board's statement did not commit to a particular path, saying only that it "will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target."

Senior officials have also been careful about signalling. Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter said in an interview aired on 25 October: "I'm not going to front run what the Board might or might not do with interest rates."

Why data, not just words, moves expectations

RBA research published on 22 October offers context on how actual policy and data shape views about future rates. Research Discussion Paper 2026-06, "Perceived Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence From Professional Forecasters in Australia", by Jonathan Hambur and Qazi Haque, found that forecasters' perceived responsiveness of the RBA to inflation rose sharply after the 2022 tightening. Their beliefs shifted after actual policy moves; communication alone was not enough.

The 3 November increase was the fifth of the year, following moves in February, March, May and September, taking the cumulative increase in 2026 to 125 basis points.

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has stressed the cost of letting expectations slip. "We can't allow expectations to shift away from the target," he said at a Citi conference fireside chat on 21 October, noting that a rising share of firms see 3–3.5% inflation as the "new normal".

The CPI release will not be the only input. The November SMP describes an economy that is slowing, with the Board's statement noting that "housing prices have fallen significantly and the Unemployment rate has risen." The SMP forecasts unemployment rising to 4.7% by December 2026, from 4.4% in June 2026.

Market pricing also matters. The SMP's cash rate assumption, based on pricing as at 28 October, implies a year-average cash rate of 4.9% for 2026/27.

The Board will therefore be weighing the CPI result alongside labour market, housing and activity data, as well as global developments such as energy prices, which the SMP assumes will decline from elevated levels but which could remain high if shipping and refining disruptions persist.

The bottom line

The monthly CPI indicator on 25 November arrives at a sensitive moment. Headline inflation has climbed from 3.5% in July to 4.3% in September, underlying trimmed mean inflation sits at 3.7%, and the Board has just raised the cash rate on a 6–3 vote. The RBA has forecast that headline inflation will rise further to 4.5% by December 2026.

What the Board does on 8 December will depend on how members read the full body of evidence, not one number. Still, as the last major inflation figure before the year's final meeting, the late-November release is likely to draw close scrutiny from markets, borrowers and savers alike. Those weighing decisions about loans or savings can consider speaking with a licensed adviser or their lender.