A majority of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board voted on 3 November 2026 to lift the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, while three members preferred to hold at 4.60%.

Six votes to three. That is the arithmetic behind the latest move in Australian interest rates, and it marks a clear change of tone from the Board's previous meeting. When the cash rate was raised from 4.35% to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, the decision was unanimous. This time, a third of the nine-member Board wanted to wait.

The outcome itself was a quarter-point increase. The decision, released at 2.30 pm AEDT, reads: "At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent." The new target takes effect on 4 November 2026.

What the Board decided, and how it voted

The RBA's homepage now shows a cash rate target of 4.85%, up from 4.60%. The decision was a majority one: six members voted to raise the rate and three voted to keep it at 4.60%. The RBA has not said which members voted which way, and this article does not speculate.

The Board has nine members: Governor Michele Bullock, who chairs it; Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, the Deputy Chair; Marnie Baker AM; Melinda Cilento; Renée Fry-McKibbin; Carolyn Hewson AO; Bruce Preston; Iain Ross AO; and Jenny Wilkinson PSM.

A split vote does not change the outcome – the cash rate still rose – but it does tell observers that the case was contested. In September, the minutes recorded that the Board considered two options, raising by 25 basis points or leaving the rate unchanged, and rejected the second. On 3 November, the "leave unchanged" option attracted three votes.

The majority's case: Inflation that is spreading

The statement accompanying the decision leaves little doubt about what drove the majority. "Inflation remains elevated and recent data indicate that it is broadly based," it says. It adds that "there is an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded."

The numbers behind those words, as published on the RBA's website:

  • Monthly headline CPI rose to 4.3% in the year to September 2026, from 4.0% in August and 3.5% in July.
  • The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred underlying measure, was 3.7% over the year to the September quarter and 1.0% in the quarter itself (seasonally adjusted).
  • The inflation target is 2–3%, with the RBA aiming for the midpoint.

Those two measures are different and should not be confused. The headline figure includes volatile items such as fuel; the trimmed mean is designed to show the underlying trend. Both sit well above the target band.

The November Statement on Monetary Policy, released alongside the decision, adds that "a number of upside risks have crystallised since the August Statement." In the RBA's forecasts – which are projections, not certainties – headline inflation is expected to be 4.5% over the year to December 2026, compared with 3.6% forecast in August. The trimmed mean is forecast at 3.6% for December 2026, up from 3.3%.

The statement also lists the drivers: higher fuel and Commodity prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, capacity pressures in the economy, and AI-related Investment pushing up prices of technology goods.

Why three members might have looked the other way

The RBA has not published the minority's reasoning, and the date of the minutes for this meeting has not been confirmed. What the statement does show is that the economic backdrop gives weight to both sides of the argument.

"The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the Unemployment rate has risen," the statement says. It notes that "the unemployment rate is projected to rise by more than expected in the August forecasts." The SMP forecast table has unemployment at 4.7% by December 2026 and 4.9% by December 2027, both higher than in August.

The SMP also states plainly that "Financial conditions are judged to be restrictive." In other words, policy was already working to slow the economy before today's increase. Hauser made a related point on 21 October: "We need a period of below-trend growth to bring inflation down, and we're seeing that happening."

Those are the kinds of considerations that can support a case for patience. The majority, however, concluded that the inflation risks outweighed them. The statement puts it directly: "The Board is conscious of the period in which inflation has been too high."

What comes next

This was the fifth increase of 2026, following moves in February, March, May and September. Governor Bullock told a Senate committee on 28 October that the cumulative increase had been 100 basis points; today's move brings the 2026 total to 125 basis points.

The RBA's forecasts are built on a cash rate assumption drawn from market pricing as at 28 October. That assumption averages 4.9% for 2026/27 and 4.8% for calendar 2027. These are market-based assumptions, not RBA commitments.

The next scheduled decision is at 2.30 pm on 8 December 2026. Before then, the next monthly CPI update is due on 25 November 2026. The Board's closing line offers no promises either way: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target."

The bottom line

The cash rate is now 4.85%, effective 4 November 2026, after a 6–3 vote that contrasts with September's unanimous decision. The majority pointed to inflation that is "broadly based", forecasts that have moved higher and a growing risk to inflation expectations. Against that, the RBA itself acknowledges a slowing economy, falling housing prices and rising unemployment. A divided Board suggests the balance between those forces is finely poised heading into the December meeting. Readers wanting to understand what the change means for their own circumstances can consider speaking with a licensed adviser or their lender.