Three of the nine Monetary Policy Board members voted to hold the cash rate at 4.60% on 3 November 2026, but the six-member majority judged that the risks of waiting on Inflation were too great.

Not every member of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board was convinced that another rate rise was needed. On 3 November 2026, three members voted to leave the cash rate target at 4.60%. The other six voted to raise it by 25 basis points to 4.85%, and the majority carried the day.

The RBA has not said which members were in the minority, and their individual reasoning has not been published. The date for the release of minutes from this meeting has not been confirmed. What the public record does allow is a look at the evidence on each side of the table, and at the language the majority used to justify moving.

The evidence that could support waiting

A case for patience does not have to be built from outside sources. Much of it sits in the RBA's own statement.

"The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the Unemployment rate has risen," the decision statement says. It goes on: "The forecasts see growth in output slowing further over the coming year". And: "the unemployment rate is projected to rise by more than expected in the August forecasts."

The November Statement on Monetary Policy adds that "Financial conditions are judged to be restrictive." Policy, in other words, was already pressing down on activity before Tuesday's move.

Other pieces of the record point the same way:

  • Unemployment was 4.6% in August, according to the September minutes, and is forecast in the SMP to reach 4.7% by December 2026 and 4.9% by December 2027.
  • GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.3% over the year to December 2027, below the 1.6% forecast in August.
  • Governor Michele Bullock told a Senate committee on 28 October that "Housing prices have fallen in most Capital cities and new housing loans have declined."
  • Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said on 19 October that "there are indicators where the labour market has become less tight a bit faster than we might have forecast."

Kent also cautioned about how much anyone knows about where policy sits. Asked about the neutral rate, he said: "Well, I would dispute that we know where it is now." At the time, the cash rate and its expected path sat at the upper end of the range of neutral estimates.

None of this tells us how the three members weighed things. It does show that a decision to hold would not have been made in a vacuum.

Why the majority still moved

Against that backdrop, the majority concluded the inflation picture demanded action. The statement opens its reasoning bluntly: "Inflation remains elevated and recent data indicate that it is broadly based."

The figures are stark. Monthly headline CPI was 4.3% in the year to September 2026, up from 4.0% in August and 3.5% in July. The trimmed mean, the RBA's underlying measure, was 3.7% over the year to the September quarter, and rose 1.0% in that quarter alone. Both are some distance from the 2–3% target.

The forecasts have also moved. The SMP now projects headline inflation of 4.5% over the year to December 2026, compared with 3.6% in the August forecasts, and trimmed mean inflation of 3.6% for the same period, up from 3.3%. These are forecasts, not outcomes, but the RBA now expects inflation not to reach the top of the target range until late 2027, about three quarters later than it previously thought.

Then there is the issue that seems to weigh most heavily. The statement warns that "there is an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded." Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser had previewed that concern on 21 October: "We can't allow expectations to shift away from the target." He also noted a rising share of firms seeing inflation of 3–3.5% as the "new normal".

A familiar argument, sharpened

The majority's logic echoes September, when the Board was unanimous. The September minutes recorded: "The strongest argument for raising the cash rate target at this meeting was that several of the upside risks identified in August had since materialised or were building." Members also "expressed their concern that excess Demand was greater than previously assessed."

The November SMP suggests those risks have continued to arrive. "Inflation in Australia remains well above target and a number of upside risks have crystallised since the August Statement," it says. It also states that "The economy is currently operating with excess demand and is judged to reach balance next year".

The statement adds a line about time itself: "The Board is conscious of the period in which inflation has been too high." Inflation peaked at 7.9% at the end of 2022, and on the RBA's latest forecasts it will not be back within the target range until late 2027.

Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter framed the stakes on 25 October: "We don't want to live with high inflation for a long time."

What the split leaves open

A 6–3 vote does not amount to a change of direction. The Board's closing words remain firm: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target."

But a minority of three is a reminder that the data can be read more than one way. The next monthly CPI update is due on 25 November 2026, and the next decision follows at 2.30 pm on 8 December 2026. The market-based cash rate assumption in the SMP, taken as at 28 October, averages 4.9% for 2026/27 – an assumption, not a forecast by the Board.

The bottom line

Three members wanted to wait, and the RBA's own description of a slowing economy, falling housing prices and rising unemployment shows why caution had a constituency. The six-member majority judged that broadly based inflation, higher forecasts and a growing risk to inflation expectations outweighed those concerns. How that balance shifts will depend on the data still to come. Readers working through what higher rates mean for them can consider speaking with a licensed adviser or their lender.