The cash rate target rises to 4.85% on Wednesday 4 November 2026, in a year in which the Reserve Bank has lifted rates five times for a cumulative 125 basis points.

February, March, May, September and now November. With Tuesday's decision, 2026 has delivered five increases to the cash rate target in one calendar year, and the year is not over yet. The latest quarter-point rise was announced at 2.30 pm AEDT on 3 November 2026 and takes effect the following day.

The RBA's homepage now lists the cash rate target as 4.85%, effective 4 November 2026. The previous setting, 4.60%, had been effective since 30 September 2026, the day after the Board's September meeting.

The same one-day gap between announcement and effective date applied in September. It means the higher target applies from Wednesday, although the rates that households and businesses actually pay are set by lenders, who make their own decisions about whether and when to pass changes on.

The 3 November decision was not unanimous. Six members of the Monetary Policy Board voted to raise the rate, and three voted to keep it at 4.60%. In September, by contrast, the Board was united.

Five rises, one year

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, speaking at a Citi conference in Sydney on 21 October, listed the February, March and May increases before September's. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, in an interview aired on 25 October, referred to "four rate hikes this year". Governor Michele Bullock told a Senate committee on 28 October that the cumulative increase stood at 100 basis points.

Adding today's move, the tally looks like this:

  • February 2026: increase
  • March 2026: increase
  • May 2026: increase
  • September 2026: 25 basis points, 4.35% to 4.60%
  • November 2026: 25 basis points, 4.60% to 4.85%
  • Cumulative 2026 increase: 125 basis points

Hauser also pointed out the RBA's early start: "We were the first G20 central bank, as you know, to raise rates this year." He noted that fourteen other G20 central banks have also raised rates.

Why the rises kept coming

The short answer is that Inflation has not behaved as the RBA hoped. The Board's statement says "Inflation remains elevated and recent data indicate that it is broadly based."

On the RBA's inflation pages, monthly headline CPI climbed from 3.5% in the year to July to 4.0% in August and 4.3% in September. The underlying measure, the trimmed mean, was 3.7% over the year to the September quarter, with a rise of 1.0% in that quarter alone. Neither is close to the 2–3% target, where the RBA aims for the midpoint. Headline and underlying inflation are separate measures and tell slightly different stories, but both point in the same direction.

The November Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts that headline inflation will reach 4.5% over the year to December 2026, up from the 3.6% forecast in August. These are forecasts, and the RBA points to heightened uncertainty around the outlook. It now expects inflation to remain elevated "through much of 2027" and not to reach the top of the target range until late 2027, roughly three quarters later than previously forecast.

Hauser had flagged the shift in October: "The inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report." He also cited oil prices above $100 a barrel, about a third higher than the August assumption.

The cost side of the ledger

Five increases in one year come at a price, and the RBA is open about it. The decision statement says: "The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the Unemployment rate has risen." It adds that "Higher interest rates and falls in housing prices and turnover are expected to weigh on growth".

In the SMP forecast table, GDP growth slows to 1.6% over the year to December 2026 and to 1.3% by December 2027. Unemployment is forecast to rise to 4.7% by December 2026 and 5.1% by December 2028. The SMP describes financial conditions as "restrictive".

On households, the September minutes recorded that scheduled Mortgage payments were about 10% of household disposable income, around their 2024 peak, while fewer than 2% of owner-occupier borrowers had a Cash Flow shortfall. Those observations predate the November increase.

Hunter, asked about the effect on households, said: "We're not trying to put people out of their homes." She added: "We're not trying to achieve a sharp stop or a really big downturn or anything like that."

One more meeting before the calendar turns

There is still one scheduled decision left in 2026: 2.30 pm on 8 December. The next monthly CPI release, on 25 November, will land before it.

The RBA's forecasts use a cash rate assumption derived from market pricing as at 28 October. That path averages 4.7% for 2026, 4.9% for 2026/27 and 4.8% for 2027. It is a market-based assumption used for forecasting, not a promise from the Board.

The statement's closing commitment is open-ended: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target."

The bottom line

From Wednesday, the cash rate target is 4.85%, the result of five increases totalling 125 basis points in 2026. The RBA's case rests on inflation that is "broadly based", forecasts that have shifted higher and a delayed return to target. Its own statement also acknowledges a slowing economy and rising unemployment, and the 6–3 vote shows the Board is no longer of one mind. Anyone unsure what the change means for their borrowing or savings can consider speaking with a licensed adviser or their lender.