Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The Australian share market ended lower on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 falling 73.30 points, or 0.83%, to close at 8,745.20, slipping below its 50-day moving average. The index has shed 0.68% over the past five sessions and now sits 3.42% under its 52-week high.

Sectors were broadly weaker, with 10 of 11 finishing in the red. Information Technology was the only gainer, rising 0.20% on the day and up 1.26% over the week. Energy stocks weighed heaviest, plunging 5.90% after news that a $36 billion takeover bid for Santos collapsed. The weak session followed a mixed lead from Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.57%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.33%.

Macro Update: Oil prices continued to slide despite rising geopolitical risks, including intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and a faster production ramp-up by OPEC and its partners. Concerns over US demand deepened after data showed a rise in diesel stockpiles. Traders also largely factored in the widely expected US Federal Reserve rate cut announced early Thursday (AEST).

Australia’s population grew 1.6% in the year to March 2025, reaching 27.5 million—an increase of 423,400 people, according to ABS data released on 18 September. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in August. Employment fell by 5,000 people, while the number of unemployed declined by 1,000, ABS reported.

Top Market Movers: Nuix Limited (ASX: NXL) topped the gains on Thursday, advancing 9.51% to close at AUD 2.88. Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL) followed, adding 7.02% to finish at AUD 8.23, while Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) rose 4.49% to AUD 1.98. On the downside, Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) led the losses, dropping 11.90% to AUD 6.74. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) declined 6.26% to AUD 23.06, and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (ASX: SOL) slipped 4.55% to AUD 39.42.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar steadied Thursday after hitting a 3-1/2-year low before rebounding, as traders assessed the Fed’s cautious stance on further rate cuts. Gold slipped 0.48% to USD 3,700, silver fell 0.32% to USD 42.01, and copper edged down 0.01% to USD 9,995.35. Brent crude dropped 0.50% to USD 67.62 after a recent rally, with prices supported earlier by Fed cuts, mixed U.S. inventory data, and supply concerns from Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Our Stance: The Australian share market retreated on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 slipping 0.83% to 8,745.20, as a sharp sell-off in energy stocks offset modest strength in technology. Sentiment was dampened by the collapse of Santos’ takeover bid and a weak global lead, with Wall Street mixed overnight. On the macro front, oil prices extended losses despite escalating geopolitical risks, while Australia’s latest ABS data showed steady unemployment at 4.2% and population growth of 1.6% over the year to March. Commodity markets traded softer, with gold, silver, and copper edging down and Brent crude easing after a brief rally. Overall, investors appear cautious, balancing domestic stability against global energy pressures and shifting monetary policy expectations.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index came under pressure, falling 62.80 points and forming a bearish candlestick on rising volume a signal of strengthening short-term selling momentum and the potential for further downside. The index is now trading below its 21-period SMA, which has shifted into a key resistance level. On the daily chart, support around 8,700 remains critical; holding this zone could provide a base for a potential rebound, while a decisive breakdown would expose the index to deeper near-term losses. From a broader perspective, the weekly chart remains constructive, with the index continuing to hold above its 50-period SMA, underscoring the resilience of the long-term uptrend. While near-term volatility is expected, the longer-term outlook stays bullish as long as key support levels are preserved.