Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 rebounded on Thursday, closing 26.30 points or 0.30% higher at 8,828.30, recovering from a recent 20-day low. The Australian sharemarket snapped its losing streak as investors rotated back into materials stocks following a lift in gold prices. Despite the session’s gains, the index remains down 0.64% over the past five days and trades 3.15% below its 52-week high. Seven of the 11 major sectors advanced, led by materials, which rose 1.40% after recent weakness but is still down 2.22% over the same five-day period.

Macro Update: Public sector employment and wages continued to rise over the year to June 2025, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The number of public sector jobs increased 3.3% compared to June 2024, while total wages paid climbed 7.6% to AUD 249.5 billion across all levels of government. The wage growth, though slightly below the 8.0% recorded in 2023–24, reflected both higher pay rates under new enterprise agreements and increased employment. State governments remained the largest employers, accounting for 77% of public sector roles, followed by the Commonwealth at 15% and local governments at 8%.

In a separate release, the ABS reported Australia’s goods trade balance rose by AUD 2.83 billion in September. Exports climbed 7.9% (AUD 3.26 billion), led by a strong increase in non-monetary gold, while imports rose 1.1% (AUD 429 million), driven mainly by higher capital goods purchases.

Top Market Movers: Light & Wonder Inc. (ASX:LNW) led the gainers on Thursday, rising 8.21% to close at AUD 124.85. Emerald Resources NL (ASX:EMR) advanced 6.67% to AUD 5.12, while Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX:RMS) climbed 5.63% to AUD 3.38. On the downside, James Hardie Industries Plc (ASX:JHX) fell 12.65% to AUD 25.75, DroneShield Ltd (ASX:DRO) declined 11.69% to AUD 3.40, and Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:NEU) dropped 10.43% to AUD 18.12.

Commodity Update: The dollar held near a three-month high on Thursday as markets reduced bets on a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Gold dipped 0.03% to USD 3,991.80 per ounce, silver declined 0.35% to USD 47.85, while copper rose 0.32% to USD 10,759.00. Brent crude inched up 0.03% to USD 63.54, recovering slightly after recent losses amid weak demand and persistent global oversupply concerns.

Our Stance: Thursday’s rebound in the S&P/ASX 200 reflects renewed market confidence, supported by strength in materials following higher gold prices. Despite the recovery, the index remains below its 52-week high, indicating continued caution amid global uncertainties. The ABS data highlights steady labour market conditions, with public sector wages and employment rising through FY2025. A better trade balance, driven by gold exports, reinforces Australia’s economic resilience. However, persistent weakness in commodity prices and shifting expectations around U.S. interest rates may limit short-term momentum. Overall, the market shows constructive signs but remains sensitive to global policy shifts and resource demand trends.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index extended its rebound from the recent low, edging up 0.3% in the latest session despite a decline in trading volume. This pattern signals that short-term selling pressure persists, with investors maintaining a cautious stance. On the daily chart, the index remains below its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has now become a notable resistance zone. This implies that any near-term recovery may encounter selling interest around this level. Key support lies near 8,720, and holding above this area is vital to prevent a deeper pullback and to safeguard the current rebound. From a broader view, the weekly chart remains constructive, as the index continues to trade above its 21-week SMA—highlighting underlying strength and the potential for ongoing bullish momentum in the medium to long term.