Key Highlights

  • Macquarie Research has assigned a Neutral rating on Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) with a target price of AUD 35.50, against a current last traded price of AUD 32.730.
  • Woodside reported record production of 198.8 MMboe for full-year 2025, though net profit after tax declined 24% to USD 2,718 million as lower realised prices offset volume gains.
  • Elizabeth (Liz) Westcott was formally appointed CEO and Managing Director in March 2026, following a comprehensive recruitment process after Meg O'Neill's departure in December 2025.

Macquarie Research's decision to maintain a Neutral rating on Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS) with a target price of AUD 35.50 encapsulates the cautious mood among institutional brokers toward one of Australia's largest energy producers. With the stock last trading at AUD 32.730 — down 0.243% or AUD 0.079 on the day — and carrying a market capitalisation of approximately AUD 62.37 billion, Woodside occupies a prominent position in the ASX energy landscape. Yet the gap between the current price and the broker's target reflects measured optimism rather than outright conviction, and understanding why requires a closer look at both the company's exceptional 2025 operational performance and the structural challenges it navigates.

Macquarie's Neutral call situates Woodside in a middle ground — acknowledging the company's operational quality while stopping short of recommending accumulation at current levels. The broker's AUD 35.50 target implies roughly 8.5% upside from the last traded price, a relatively modest premium that signals confidence in the company's direction but warrants patience from investors waiting for a more compelling entry point or catalytic event.

Record-Breaking 2025: Production Hits New Heights

Woodside's full-year 2025 results, released on 24 February 2026, delivered a headline number that few expected: record production of 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), equivalent to 545 Mboe per day. This surpassed the company's own guidance range and was underpinned by outstanding performance at its Sangomar asset in Senegal, which operated at nameplate capacity for the majority of the year, alongside world-class reliability at the company's operated Pluto LNG and North West Shelf (NWS) Project assets in Western Australia.

Reliability figures were impressive across the board. Karratha Gas Plant (KGP) achieved 98.4% reliability, Pluto LNG registered 96.3%, and Sangomar delivered 98.7%. These metrics translated into USD 1.9 billion of revenue from Sangomar alone during 2025, demonstrating the project's maturity and contribution to Woodside's overall financial performance.

Despite the production record, the financial picture was more nuanced. Net profit after tax (NPAT) came in at USD 2,718 million — a 24% decline from the prior year — driven predominantly by lower realised commodity prices. Underlying NPAT, which strips out one-off items, fell a more moderate 8% to USD 2,649 million. EBITDA was USD 9.3 billion, free cash flow stood at USD 1.9 billion, and unit production cost decreased by 4% to USD 7.8 per barrel of oil equivalent, demonstrating continued cost discipline in a challenging price environment.

Dividend Policy Maintained at Upper Range

Woodside's board declared a final dividend of USD 59 cents per share for the second half of 2025, bringing the full-year fully franked dividend to USD 112 cents per share. The payout ratio was maintained at the top of the company's target range at 80% of underlying NPAT, and the total dividend value of USD 2.1 billion underscores Woodside's commitment to returning capital to shareholders even as earnings came under pressure. For income-oriented investors, this dividend consistency is a meaningful component of the investment case.

Leadership Transition: Liz Westcott Takes the Helm

On 18 March 2026, Woodside formally confirmed the appointment of Elizabeth (Liz) Westcott as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director. Ms Westcott had been serving as Acting CEO since December 2025, following the departure of Meg O'Neill. Her appointment concluded a comprehensive recruitment process that considered both internal and external candidates, according to Woodside Chairman Richard Goyder.

Ms Westcott brings more than three decades of experience in the global energy industry. Since joining Woodside in June 2023, she led Australian Operations as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Australia, overseeing the Scarborough Energy Project and the Bass Strait operator transition. Prior to Woodside, she served as Chief Operating Officer at EnergyAustralia, and before that spent 25 years at ExxonMobil across Australia, the United Kingdom, and Italy. Her deep operational expertise across strategic planning, commercial development, regulatory engagement, and sustainability positions her as a credible steward for the projects Woodside is currently executing.

Growth Projects: Scarborough, Trion, and Louisiana LNG

The near-term production outlook is anchored by two major projects: Scarborough, the large offshore gas development on the North West Shelf which was 94% complete by the end of 2025, and Trion, the deepwater oil project in the Gulf of Mexico, which stood at 50% completion. Both are progressing on budget and schedule, and their delivery is expected to support future production and long-term revenue generation.

Beyond these near-term developments, Woodside took a positive final investment decision (FID) on Louisiana LNG during 2025, partnering with Stonepeak and Williams as strategic partners. Woodside's expected capital expenditure on Louisiana LNG is now approximately USD 9.9 billion, representing less than 60% of total project capital expenditure. This strategic partnership structure lowers Woodside's exposure while maintaining its interest in the project's long-term cashflows from LNG exports to global markets.

Woodside also completed the Greater Angostura divestment as part of portfolio rationalisation, and is progressing an asset swap with Chevron. These transactions reflect active capital management — pruning non-core assets while concentrating resources on higher-priority developments.

ESG Progress and the Emissions Trajectory

In 2025, Woodside achieved its target of a 15% reduction in net equity Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions below its starting base — a milestone the company highlighted as evidence of its commitment to emissions reduction. The company is on track to meet an equivalent 2030 target, and the commencement of first production at the Beaumont New Ammonia facility points toward a longer-term ambition in clean energy. Safety outcomes also improved, with zero high-consequence injuries recorded across global operations during 2025.

Balance Sheet and Capital Markets Activity

Woodside maintained a strong balance sheet through 2025, supported by disciplined management of liquidity and capital. The company completed a USD 3.5 billion US bond issuance during the year, which was significantly oversubscribed — reflecting continued strong appetite from debt capital markets for Woodside paper. This issuance supported the company's funding needs for Louisiana LNG and broader capital commitments without placing undue strain on the balance sheet.

Broker Context and Market Positioning

Macquarie Research's Neutral rating at AUD 35.50 should be understood within the broader spectrum of institutional sentiment on Woodside. The broker's call implies an acknowledgement of the company's strengths — its operational quality, its dividend discipline, its pipeline of growth projects — while also reflecting macro concerns around commodity price volatility, LNG market dynamics, and the capital intensity of Woodside's development agenda. For investors monitoring consensus positioning, Macquarie's stance occupies the cautious centre rather than the bullish or bearish extremes, and should be read accordingly.

With a new CEO at the helm, major projects in advanced execution, and a record production year behind it, Woodside enters 2026 with operational momentum. The broker landscape will be watching closely to see whether the completion of Scarborough and progress on Louisiana LNG can catalyse a revision of that Neutral stance.