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Economic News

A Fifth Rise This Year? Reading the Board's "Further if Required" Pledge

Four times in 2026, the Monetary Policy Board has lifted the cash rate target. The latest increase, on 29 September, took it to 4.60 per cent, and Governor Michele Bullock confirmed that three earlier rises had come between February and May. With the next …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

What Is the Trimmed Mean? A Plain-English Guide to the RBA's Favourite Inflation Gauge

Think of a judging panel at a sporting event that throws out the highest and lowest scores before averaging the rest. The idea is to stop one unusually generous or harsh judge from distorting the result. The trimmed mean applies a similar logic to …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

Petrol or Pressure at Home? What RBA Staff Concluded About July's Price Jump

Every surprise in the inflation data raises the same question for a central bank: where did it come from? The answer matters, because a price jump driven by a global oil shock calls for a different reading than one driven by an economy running …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

Hotter Than Forecast Already: Staff Expect a Warm September-Quarter Underlying Figure

Forecasts age quickly. Barely two months after the RBA finalised its August projections, the minutes of the Monetary Policy Board's September meeting recorded that staff expected underlying inflation in the September quarter to be higher than forecast in August.

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

When Will Inflation Feel Normal Again? The RBA's Answer, Year by Year

For many households, the question about inflation is no longer technical. It is simply: when will price rises stop feeling unusual? Governor Michele Bullock gave a sense of how long the problem has lasted at her 29 September media conference, noting that inflation has …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

Oil Shock Meets AI Boom: Two Global Forces Squeezing Australian Prices at Once

Two stories that rarely share a headline ended up side by side in the RBA's September rate decision. One is an old-fashioned energy shock: conflict in the Middle East, dearer oil and higher fuel bills. The other is thoroughly modern: a global investment boom …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

Circular Vendor Financing: The AI-Boom Risk the RBA Wants Investors to Understand

Most coverage of the artificial intelligence boom focuses on what is being built: data centres, chips and the software that runs on them. The RBA's October 2026 Financial Stability Review (FSR) draws attention to a less visible question: how all of that is being …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

Breadth Matters: How the RBA Measures Whether Inflation Is Spreading

Imagine two economies that both report annual inflation of 4 per cent. In the first, the number is driven by a handful of items, say a jump in fuel and a spike in one or two volatile categories, while most prices are rising modestly. …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

A Rush Into Cash at Four Times the Early-COVID Pace: The Super Stress Test the RBA Ran

Superannuation is usually thought of as a slow-moving, long-term pool of savings, generally preserved until retirement. So why would a central bank run a stress test built around a sudden rush for the exits?

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026

Insolvencies at Average Overall, Elevated in Three Industries: The FSR's Business Check-Up

Business failures tend to make headlines one collapse at a time, which can make it hard to tell whether a wave is building or whether the stories are isolated. The RBA's October 2026 Financial Stability Review (FSR), released on 1 October, steps back to …

Sonal Goyal | 15 October 2026
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