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The RBA's own forecasts show unemployment drifting higher as tighter policy works through the economy, but the Governor has stressed that a rising jobless rate is not the same as people losing their jobs.
The RBA's August forecasts pencil in labour productivity swinging from a 0.5% decline to 0.7% growth by 2028 — a shift that matters because weak productivity, not strong pay, is what the Bank blames for elevated labour costs.
Tucked inside the RBA's August forecast table is a divergence between two wage gauges: average earnings per hour are projected to accelerate sharply into 2027, while the Wage Price Index holds steady and then eases.
The RBA's August forecasts show growth in the Wage Price Index holding at 3.3% for a year before easing by just 0.4 percentage points over the following 18 months — a gradual cooling rather than a sharp slowdown.
The Reserve Bank's August projections point to a job market that keeps adding positions through 2027 but gradually becomes more competitive, with unemployment and underemployment both edging higher.
The minutes of the RBA's September meeting contain a pointed warning about the official labour force figures — a reminder that even closely watched statistics need to be read in context.
The September rate rise lands on mortgage holders through higher repayments and on workers through a slower economy — and the RBA's own documents acknowledge both, while pointing to buffers that cushion many households.
Only around 16 per cent of merchants were adding card surcharges when the Reserve Bank reviewed retail payments, yet consumers were paying an estimated $1.6 billion a year in those fees — the imbalance at the centre of the ban that took effect on …
The ban on card surcharges that began on 1 October removes one way of recovering payment costs, but the Reserve Bank's guidance makes clear that discounts for particular payment methods, and overall pricing, remain available to businesses.
Designated card networks will have to publish quarterly fee data that separates out tokenised transactions, a breakdown the Reserve Bank says is intended to shed light on mobile wallet fees.
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