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Economic News

Is a Higher Jobless Rate Part of the Plan? The RBA's Uncomfortable Trade-Off, Explained

The RBA's own forecasts show unemployment drifting higher as tighter policy works through the economy, but the Governor has stressed that a rising jobless rate is not the same as people losing their jobs.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

A Assumed Productivity Recovery to 0.7%? The Forecast That Would Cool Labour Costs

The RBA's August forecasts pencil in labour productivity swinging from a 0.5% decline to 0.7% growth by 2028 — a shift that matters because weak productivity, not strong pay, is what the Bank blames for elevated labour costs.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

From 2.7% to 3.7%: The Pay Measure Forecast to Speed Up as the WPI Slows

Tucked inside the RBA's August forecast table is a divergence between two wage gauges: average earnings per hour are projected to accelerate sharply into 2027, while the Wage Price Index holds steady and then eases.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

Wage Price Index Drifting to 2.9% by Late 2028: The Long, Slow Fade in Pay Growth

The RBA's August forecasts show growth in the Wage Price Index holding at 3.3% for a year before easing by just 0.4 percentage points over the following 18 months — a gradual cooling rather than a sharp slowdown.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

Looking for Work in 2027? What the RBA's Forecasts Imply for Job Seekers

The Reserve Bank's August projections point to a job market that keeps adding positions through 2027 but gradually becomes more competitive, with unemployment and underemployment both edging higher.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

Monthly Jobs Numbers With an Asterisk: How to Read Data the RBA Treats Cautiously

The minutes of the RBA's September meeting contain a pointed warning about the official labour force figures — a reminder that even closely watched statistics need to be read in context.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

Workers or Borrowers: Who Carries the Cost When the RBA Leans Against Inflation?

The September rate rise lands on mortgage holders through higher repayments and on workers through a slower economy — and the RBA's own documents acknowledge both, while pointing to buffers that cushion many households.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

One Merchant in Six: What Surveyed Merchants Reported About Surcharging Before 1 October

Only around 16 per cent of merchants were adding card surcharges when the Reserve Bank reviewed retail payments, yet consumers were paying an estimated $1.6 billion a year in those fees — the imbalance at the centre of the ban that took effect on …

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

Discounts Still Allowed: What Businesses may offer without a card surcharge

The ban on card surcharges that began on 1 October removes one way of recovering payment costs, but the Reserve Bank's guidance makes clear that discounts for particular payment methods, and overall pricing, remain available to businesses.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026

Tokenised Payment Fee Disclosures: The Tokenised-Payment Data Networks Must Publish

Designated card networks will have to publish quarterly fee data that separates out tokenised transactions, a breakdown the Reserve Bank says is intended to shed light on mobile wallet fees.

Sonal Goyal | 14 October 2026
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