The minutes of the September meeting end with a commitment to raise the cash rate again "if required", but the RBA has stopped well short of saying whether, or when, that might happen.

Four times in 2026, the Monetary Policy Board has lifted the cash rate target. The latest increase, on 29 September, took it to 4.60 per cent, and Governor Michele Bullock confirmed that three earlier rises had come between February and May. With the next decision due at 2.30 pm on 3 November, attention has turned to whether a fifth move is on the table.

The answer the RBA gives is deliberately conditional. This article looks at the exact words the Board and the Governor used, what markets were pricing at the time, and the arguments recorded on both sides. It does not predict what the Board will do.

The words on the record

The final paragraph of the September minutes, published on 13 October, says the Board "will remain focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment" and will do what it considers necessary, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required."

That phrasing is echoed across the RBA's other communications from the meeting:

  • The decision statement: "The Board remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded."
  • Also from the statement: "Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions."
  • Bullock at her media conference: "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down."

Each of these statements leaves the door open to a further increase, but each is tied to a condition: what the data show and what is needed to return inflation to target. None of them commits the Board to a particular move at a particular meeting.

Bullock made that explicit. "I'm not going to give you forward guidance," she said. She was equally frank about the uncertainty: "Now, will it be enough? I don't know."

What markets were pricing

The minutes record how financial markets saw the outlook at the time of the September meeting. Market pricing implied an increase at that meeting, then "an additional increase of around 15 basis points by the end of the year", plus another 30 basis points in the first half of 2027. All surveyed economists had expected an increase in September.

Two points are worth noting about those numbers. First, they reflect market pricing, not an RBA forecast or commitment. Second, an implied move of around 15 basis points is smaller than a standard 25 basis point increase, which in general terms suggests markets at the time attached some probability, rather than certainty, to a further rise before year's end. Pricing can and does shift as new information arrives.

The case for raising and the case for holding

The minutes set out the arguments members considered in September. Although they relate to that meeting, they show the factors the Board weighs.

Arguments for raising rates included:

  • upside risks to inflation had materialised;
  • a timely response would best balance the Board's objectives;
  • the existing setting might not restore balance in a reasonable timeframe;
  • 4.35 per cent might be "less restrictive" than two years earlier if the neutral rate has risen.

Arguments for holding included:

  • downside risks to activity and employment;
  • the possibility of a larger-than-expected effect from falling housing prices;
  • uncertainty about the Middle East;
  • the lagged effects of earlier tightening.

The Board decided unanimously to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points. The minutes say the August forecasts had required several favourable developments that no longer appeared likely to all occur.

Bullock's comments on the neutral rate are relevant here. She defined it as "the interest rate at which we think monetary policy is neither restrictive nor expansionary". The minutes say Australian financial conditions "remained somewhat restrictive", though the extent is uncertain.

The data that will shape the next call

Because the Board has tied any further action to the data, the releases between now and 3 November carry weight. The most prominent is the next CPI update, listed for 28 October.

The minutes flagged several areas of concern heading into that release:

  • July inflation data were stronger than expected, particularly for market services.
  • Staff expected underlying inflation in the September quarter to be higher than forecast in August.
  • The share of items with prices rising by more than 2½ per cent was "well above average".
  • Unit labour cost growth was above what is consistent with the inflation target, driven mainly by subdued productivity growth.

On the other side, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 per cent in August, housing prices fell by more than expected, and consumer spending is easing gradually, according to the decision statement.

For context, monthly headline CPI was 4.0 per cent over the year to August 2026. Trimmed mean (underlying) inflation was 3.6 per cent over the year to the June quarter. The target range is 2 to 3 per cent. These are different measures and should not be conflated.

November also brings a new Statement on Monetary Policy, listed in the RBA's calendar, which will give the Board's updated forecasts. The RBA calendar also lists a December Monetary Policy Board meeting, decision and media conference.

Bullock has noted that rate changes take about 12 to 18 months to have their full effect. That lag means the full impact of the increases made earlier in 2026 is still working through the economy, one of the factors members cited in the case for holding.

The bottom line

The Board's pledge to increase the cash rate "further if required" is a statement of willingness, not a forecast. Bullock declined to give forward guidance and said she did not know whether the September increase would be enough. Market pricing at the time of the meeting implied some chance of a further rise by year's end, but that reflects market expectations, not RBA policy. The next decision, on 3 November, will follow the 28 October CPI update and come alongside fresh forecasts. Borrowers wanting to understand how possible scenarios might affect them may wish to seek advice from a licensed professional.