Highlights

  • Copper contributed more than half of BHP’s underlying Earnings for the first time, highlighting a major portfolio shift.
  • FY2026 underlying attributable profit increased by around 30% to approximately US$13.2 billion.
  • BHP continued expanding its copper and potash pipeline through major long-term development projects.
  • The company maintained a focus on Shareholder returns while strengthening its future growth profile.

For the first time in its history, copper — rather than iron ore — generated more than half of BHP Group’s (ASX:BHP) underlying earnings. The milestone, highlighted in the miner’s results for the year ended 30 June 2026, reflects a multi-year strategy to diversify its earnings base and increase exposure to commodities linked to electrification and global infrastructure demand. Underlying attributable profit rose about 30% to roughly US$13.2 billion, while the board declared its largest final Dividend in four years, reinforcing the company’s focus on cash generation and shareholder returns.

Latest Developments

The FY2026 result was the first delivered under new chief executive Brandon Craig, who took the role on 1 July 2026 after Mike Henry stepped down. Craig inherited a portfolio supported by strong operational performance, with BHP reporting record iron ore production and shipments from its Western Australia Iron Ore operations, while copper output remained at roughly two million tonnes for the second consecutive year.

Underlying EBITDA reached close to US$33 billion, increasing by about 27% compared with the previous year, with copper contributing more than half of the figure. The company highlighted operational reliability and favourable Commodity conditions as key contributors to earnings growth. Net Debt ended the period below US$9 billion, providing financial flexibility to support Investment opportunities and shareholder distributions.

What the Numbers Show

BHP’s dividend announcement reflected its improved earnings position. The company declared a final dividend of 99 US cents per share, taking total FY2026 shareholder distributions to around US$8.7 billion.

The changing composition of earnings has become a central feature of BHP’s investment story. While iron ore continues to represent a significant contributor by Volume and cash generation, copper’s increasing contribution provides greater commodity Diversification and exposure to long-term Demand themes.

Copper benefited from supportive market conditions during the year, driven by expectations of increasing demand from electrification, grid development and data-centre infrastructure. However, commodity prices remain cyclical, and future earnings will continue to depend on market conditions.

What Could Drive the Stock Next

BHP is continuing to invest in expanding its copper portfolio. The company approved around US$0.5 billion of pre-commitment funding for a new concentrator at its Escondida mine in Chile and is targeting copper production growth of approximately 40% by FY2035.

The Jansen potash project in Canada also remains a key part of BHP’s diversification strategy. The project was reported to be 84% complete and is expected to commence first production around mid-2027, creating exposure to agricultural demand and adding a new commodity stream.

Together, these projects support BHP’s long-term strategy of combining established iron ore operations with growth opportunities in commodities linked to structural global trends. However, the success of this strategy will depend on commodity markets, project delivery and broader economic conditions.

Key Risks to Watch

BHP remains exposed to changes in global commodity demand, particularly through its iron ore operations, which continue to be closely linked to Chinese steel demand. A slowdown in China’s industrial activity could weigh on earnings from the division.

Copper also remains subject to cyclical market movements and could experience price pressure during periods of weaker global growth. Large-scale projects such as Jansen and the Escondida expansion involve execution challenges, including cost pressures, regulatory requirements and potential timing delays.

Currency fluctuations, geopolitical developments in operating regions and the pace of the global energy transition will also influence BHP’s future performance.

Investor Takeaway

BHP’s FY2026 performance demonstrated that copper has become a central component of the company’s earnings profile, supported by record iron ore operations and continued investment in future growth projects. Under Brandon Craig’s leadership, BHP enters the next phase of its strategy with a diversified commodity portfolio and a strong balance sheet. Future performance will depend on commodity cycles, demand trends and the successful execution of major projects.