Highlights

  • Bell Potter Securities (Institutional) has issued Buy ratings across all four ASX-listed REIT stocks — Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP), DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT), Dexus Industria REIT (DXI), and Goodman Group (GMG) — with price targets of AUD 3.60, AUD 3.40, AUD 3.00, and AUD 40.25 respectively, implying upside ranging from approximately 22% to over 30% from current trading prices as at 11 May 2026.
  • Three of the four stocks — CIP, DGT, and DXI — have experienced significant price declines ranging from 12% to nearly 18% over the past six to twelve months, creating a marked divergence between market pricing and broker conviction; Goodman Group is the exception, having rallied 11.80% over the past month while still trading more than 30% below Bell Potter's target.
  • The bullish thesis across all four names rests on a common foundation of strong operational fundamentals — near-full portfolio occupancy, contracted rental growth, active development pipelines delivering above-target yields on cost, and conservative balance sheets — within a sector supported by Australia's chronically undersupplied industrial and data centre property markets.

In a listed property sector that has spent the better part of two years navigating the twin headwinds of rising interest rates and cautious investor sentiment, institutional broker Bell Potter Securities has taken a clear and differentiated stance. Across four ASX-listed real estate Investment trusts spanning industrial Warehousing, urban logistics, and data centre infrastructure, Bell Potter has issued Buy ratings with price targets that imply double-digit upside from current market prices. The four stocks — Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX:CIP), DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX:DGT), Dexus Industria REIT (ASX:DXI), and Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) — together represent a cross-section of the Australian industrial and digital infrastructure property market, and Bell Potter's collective bullishness on all four is a statement of conviction about the sector's underlying value.

What makes the broker's position particularly notable is that three of the four stocks have delivered negative total returns over recent periods, with price declines ranging from 12% to nearly 18%. The gap between declining market prices and rising or reaffirmed Earnings guidance across these trusts reflects a disconnect that Bell Potter appears to believe is temporary. This article examines each of the four companies in turn — their recent share price performance, latest operational and financial results, and the fundamental drivers that underpin the broker's bullish outlook.

Sector Context: Why Industrial and Data Centre Property Remains Structurally Attractive

Before examining each stock individually, it is worth establishing the macro and structural backdrop against which Bell Potter's conviction is set. Australian industrial property has been one of the strongest-performing real asset classes over the past five years, driven by the post-Pandemic acceleration of E-commerce, Supply chain reshoring, and urbanisation of logistics networks. Vacancy rates across core industrial markets — Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane — have remained structurally low, and while the market has normalised from the ultra-tight conditions of 2022 and 2023, high land values and construction costs continue to constrain new supply pipelines, providing a structural floor for occupancy and rent growth.

The data centre segment is a newer but increasingly dominant theme within the sector. Demand for digital infrastructure — driven by hyperscale cloud adoption, the proliferation of artificial intelligence workloads, and enterprise digitalisation — is growing at a pace that supply pipelines are struggling to match. Securing powered, construction-ready metropolitan land for data centre development takes years, creating a Scarcity premium for those with existing land banks and power connections. Several of the trusts under review here are directly positioned to capture this secular demand theme, either as pure-play data centre operators or as developers with activated sites and secured power allocations.

It is within this structural context — low industrial vacancy, constrained supply, surging data centre demand, and a listed property sector trading at widened discounts to NTA — that Bell Potter's four Buy ratings should be understood. The broker appears to be making a judgment that listed prices have overshot to the downside relative to the operational quality and income growth trajectory of these businesses, and that the sector's structural tailwinds will ultimately reassert themselves in unit prices.

1. Centuria Industrial REIT

Centuria Industrial REIT is Australia's largest domestic pure-play industrial REIT and the most dramatically de-rated of the four stocks under review. CIP has declined 17.65% over the past six months, falling to AUD 2.94 as at 11 May 2026 — a level that represents approximately a 25% discount to its reported Net Tangible Assets (NTA) per unit of AUD 3.95. On 11 May alone, units fell AUD 0.05 or 1.67%, suggesting the selling pressure remains acute. Bell Potter's Buy rating with a target of AUD 3.60 implies upside of approximately 22.4% from current prices.

The NTA discount is not lost on management. CIP has been conducting an on-market unit buy-back program, completing AUD 36 million of a AUD 60 million authorised buy-back as at 31 December 2025 — a direct vote of confidence by the trust's own board in the gap between price and Intrinsic Value. The implied forward distribution Yield at the current price exceeds 5.7% based on reaffirmed FY26 distribution guidance of 16.8 cents per unit.

Latest Operational Update

CIP's HY26 results for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 demonstrated continued operational resilience. The trust reported FFO of AUD 57.3 million or 9.1 cents per unit, with like-for-like Net Operating Income growth of 5.1%. The portfolio recorded its fourth consecutive half-year of valuation gains — AUD 75 million — resulting in a weighted average Capitalisation rate of 5.81%. Portfolio occupancy rose to 95.7% with a WALE of 7.1 years, and 143,904 square metres of Lease transactions were executed across 18 deals, representing 12% of portfolio GLA. Re-leasing spreads averaged 20% across the active portfolio, rising to 44% when cold storage and capped-escalation assets are excluded.

A particularly compelling feature of the CIP investment case is the approximately 20% average under-renting across its portfolio — passing rents are, on average, 20% below prevailing market rents. As leases roll and are renewed at market levels, this embedded rental reversion provides a structural earnings growth tailwind that does not require any acquisitions or developments to materialise. CIP has also expanded into data centres, acquiring two strategic assets during HY26 for approximately AUD 60 million, and submitted a development application for a 40-megawatt data centre at Clayton, Victoria. FY26 FFO guidance of 18.2 to 18.5 cents per unit and distribution guidance of 16.8 cents per unit have both been reaffirmed.

2. DigiCo Infrastructure REIT

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT has declined 12.22% over the past twelve months, trading at AUD 2.73 as at 11 May 2026, with units losing a further AUD 0.04 or 1.44% on the day. The trust was established as a pure-play data centre REIT with assets across Australia and North America, and its twelve-month share price performance has reflected investor concern around elevated gearing levels following its initial US acquisitions and execution risk on its development pipeline. Bell Potter's Buy rating carries a target of AUD 3.40, implying approximately 24.5% upside.

DGT has been trading at a discount to its Net Asset Value, prompting management to pursue a Capital recycling strategy explicitly designed to close this discount. The strategy centres on selling US assets to reduce Leverage and redeploy capital into the trust's highest-returning domestic opportunity — the SYD1 data centre in Sydney.

Latest Operational Update

The most significant recent development is the binding agreement to sell the Chicago (CHI1) data centre for US$750 million — approximately a 5% premium to the November 2024 purchase price. Expected to close in Q1 FY27, the transaction will reduce pro forma net Debt from approximately AUD 1.5 billion to AUD 0.5 billion, cut gearing from 36% to 17%, and increase available Liquidity to approximately AUD 0.9 billion. Management has also flagged its intention to explore capital management initiatives including enhanced distributions above FFO in the near term as excess capital is returned to securityholders.

The SYD1 Facility in Sydney — the strategic centrepiece of DGT's portfolio — has received 'Certified Strategic' status under the Australian Government's Hosting Certification Framework, enhancing its appeal to government and enterprise customers. Practical completion of the first 15 megawatts of a 20-megawatt upgrade has been confirmed, with the remaining 5 megawatts targeted before 30 June 2026. The full development program targets 88 megawatts at SYD1. The US asset sales are expected to be materially FFO accretive from FY27, and the recapitalised Balance Sheet ensures DGT is well funded to progress the entire SYD1 buildout without Equity dilution at current depressed prices.

3. Dexus Industria REIT

Dexus Industria REIT, managed by Dexus (ASX: DXS), has declined 12.81% over six months to trade at AUD 2.45 as at 11 May 2026, shedding a further AUD 0.02 or 0.81% on the day. Like its peers, DXI is trading at a significant discount to reported NTA — approximately 27.7% below the AUD 3.39 NTA per security reported at 31 December 2025. Bell Potter's Buy rating and AUD 3.00 price target imply 22.4% upside. At current prices, the reaffirmed FY26 distribution guidance of 16.6 cents per security implies an attractive forward distribution yield of approximately 6.8%.

Latest Operational Update

DXI's HY26 results for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 were operationally strong. The trust delivered FFO of AUD 28.2 million or 8.9 cents per security, and like-for-like income growth of 7.4% on a face basis — a result underpinned by contracted fixed rental escalations, positive re-leasing spreads and improved occupancy. Portfolio occupancy reached 99.7%, with a WALE of 5.3 years and approximately 87% of income subject to fixed rental increases. DXI secured 55,098 square metres of total leasing during the half, including 13,550 square metres of stabilised portfolio leasing at a positive re-leasing spread of 7.6%.

The trust's development pipeline at ASCEND Industrial Estate, Jandakot in Western Australia, is a key value-creation engine. The committed pipeline comprises seven projects totalling 75,400 square metres, over 77% pre-leased, with an estimated total uncommitted pipeline spanning 241,000 square metres. Recent development commitments are achieving average yields on cost of 6.6% — above both the target of 6.25% and the portfolio's current capitalisation rate of 5.94%. Look-through gearing of 26.2% sits below the 30 to 40% target range, and no debt maturities fall due until FY28. DXI slightly upgraded FY26 FFO guidance to 17.4 cents per security, with distribution guidance of 16.6 cents reaffirmed.

4. Goodman Group

Goodman Group is the exception among Bell Potter's four Buy-rated REITs — rather than declining, it has surged 11.80% over the past month, adding AUD 0.62 or 2.05% on 11 May 2026 alone to reach AUD 30.88. Yet even after this strong recent run, Bell Potter's price target of AUD 40.25 implies approximately 30.3% further upside — a remarkably large gap that reflects the broker's view that Goodman's long-term earnings power from its data centre and logistics development pipeline remains materially underpriced by the current market.

Goodman trades at a significant premium to NTA per security of AUD 11.18 — a premium that the market historically attaches to businesses with high-quality development pipelines, strong management track records, and dominant competitive positioning. The NTA premium in Goodman's case reflects the considerable value embedded in its data centre power bank, development WIP, and funds management platform that historical cost-based Book Value does not capture.

Latest Operational Update

Goodman's HY26 results for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 were exceptional by the standards of the global listed property sector. The group delivered operating profit of AUD 1,203.5 million and operating earnings per security of 58.5 cents, with statutory profit of AUD 824.7 million. The group is targeting 9% OEPS growth for full-year FY26. Gearing at the group level stands at a remarkably low 4.1%, with look-through gearing of 17.8%, an Interest Cover ratio of 133.1 times, and total liquidity of AUD 5.2 billion. External assets under management reached AUD 75.2 billion, supported by approximately AUD 7.2 billion of third-party equity raised over the past 18 months.

The data centre platform is the defining element of Goodman's investment case. The group's global power bank has grown by 1.0 gigawatt to 6.0 gigawatts across 16 major global cities, comprising 3.6 gigawatts of secured power and 2.4 gigawatts in advanced procurement. Data centres now account for 73% of total WIP of AUD 14.4 billion, which spans 51 projects across 12 countries at a forecast yield on cost of 8.1%. Total WIP is expected to grow to approximately AUD 18 billion by June 2026. In Australia, SYD01 — a 90-megawatt data centre in Sydney — has commenced in the first half. Construction-ready powered metropolitan sites of the type Goodman has assembled globally take years to develop, creating a competitive moat that underpins sustained pricing power and development returns. The logistics portfolio adds a complementary income layer, with occupancy at 95.9%, like-for-like NPI growth of 4.2%, and approximately 12% average future rent reversion embedded in the portfolio.

Conclusion

Bell Potter Securities' decision to issue Buy ratings across four ASX REIT stocks simultaneously — with implied upsides ranging from 22% to 30% — is a substantive call that the current listed property market is Mispricing quality and earnings growth in the Australian industrial and data centre sector. Three of the four stocks have experienced meaningful share price declines over the past six to twelve months, creating an environment in which operational performance and market pricing have diverged materially. The fourth, Goodman Group, has begun to re-rate strongly, yet still sits well below the broker's target — suggesting that even the Market Leader in this theme has further to run if Bell Potter's earnings forecasts prove correct. Taken together, these four stocks represent a broker's conviction that the structural story for Australian industrial and data centre property — low vacancy, constrained supply, rising rents, surging digital infrastructure demand, and conservatively capitalised management teams — is intact, and that the listed market will ultimately close the gap to underlying value.