War Leads: Where Will the Oil Go?

Robert Luong

03 March 2026 02:00 PM AEDT

Image Source: shutterstock

You are reading a free article with opinions that may differ from the recommendation given by Kalkine in its paid research reports. Become a Kalkine member today to get access to our research reports, in-depth technical and fundamental research. Learn more

Start Your Free Trial Now!

Key highlights

By Monday, 02 March 2026, the Middle East war expanded to at least nine countries.
Saudi Arabia was forced to shut its largest refinery at Ras Tanura.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for 20% of global oil, came to a virtual halt.
Brent surged roughly 9%, trading as high as $80.26 during the session,
WTI jumped about 8%, hitting intraday highs above $75.00.

Escalating conflicts in the Middle East drove oil prices upward on 02 March 2026. This analysis examines subsequent price action from a technical perspective.

The Impact of Middle East Conflict on Oil

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has injected a massive "geopolitical risk premium" into the energy markets, primarily due to the immediate threat to global supply chains and critical infrastructure.
As hostilities expanded to include strikes on Iranian leadership and retaliatory attacks on Saudi Arabian refineries, such as the major facility at Ras Tanura, the physical availability of crude became a primary concern for traders. This tension was further amplified by the logistical paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for a fifth of the world's oil flow.
On March 2, 2026, these fears manifested in a dramatic "gap up" in prices, with Brent crude surging nearly 9% to test the psychological $80 resistance level, while WTI saw similar double-digit gains.
From a market perspective, the war has shifted the focus from long-term demand fundamentals to immediate supply-side shocks, leaving prices highly sensitive to every headline regarding regional escalation or potential blockades.

Technical Outlook

Brent Crude Oil Spot

Brent’s Daily Price Chart (at the market price of 02nd March 2026). Powered by: tradingview.com

US Crude Oil Spot

WTI’s Daily Price Chart (at the market price of 02nd March 2026). Powered by: tradingview.com

On the daily chart, both Brent and WTI completed Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns on 17 and 27 February 2026, respectively, indicating a short-term trend reversal from downward to upward.
On 02 March 2026, following the escalation of the war, both spot prices formed a Rising Window coupled with spiking trading volume, implying strong short-term momentum that could push prices higher.
The projected targets for these patterns are $84.87 for Brent and $80.82 for WTI. These can be viewed as short-term targets, though selling pressure may emerge at significant resistance levels near their previous peaks.
Notably, although short-term trends have turned positive, their long-term trends remain bearish, characterized by sequential lower peaks and troughs.

Bottom Line

While the expansion of Middle East conflicts to at least nine countries has triggered a sharp, news-driven rally, the long-term market structure for oil remains bearish. Although both Brent and WTI have confirmed short-term trend reversals through Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns and high-volume Rising Windows, these movements are currently seen as a "geopolitical risk premium" rather than a permanent shift in fundamentals.
Traders should look toward short-term targets of $84.87 for Brent and $80.82 for WTI though selling pressure might appear near their previous peaks.

Download Free Report – Explore 3 Stock Ideas & Industry Insights

Unlock 3 stock ideas and key industry insights in our free report. This information is general in nature and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is not financial advice.

All investments involve risk—consider independent advice before making any investment decisions.

View 3 Research Reports

Disclaimer:

This article (“Article”) has been prepared by Kalkine Pty Limited (ABN 34 154 808 312) (Australian financial services licence number 425376) (“Kalkine”) and its related bodies corporate who are authorised to provide general financial product advice. Kalkine.com.au and its associated pages are published by Kalkine.

Any information/advice provided in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether the information is appropriate for your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it.

There may be a Product Disclosure Statement, Information Memorandum or other offer document (“Offer Document”) for the securities or other financial products referred to in Kalkine articles. You should obtain a copy of the Offer Document and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the security or financial product.

Kalkine strongly recommends that you seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) before acting on any advice/information in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Not all investments are appropriate for all people.

The information in this Article and on Kalkine website has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Kalkine, to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. Kalkine has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the information contained in its articles (including this Article), newsletters and websites. All information represents our views at the date of publication and may change without notice.

The information in this Article does not constitute an offer to sell securities or other financial products or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial products.

Kalkine does not issue, sell or deal in any financial products.

This Article may contain information on past performance of particular investments. Please note past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

To the extent permitted by law, and excluding any dishonesty or gross negligence by Kalkine, Kalkine disclaims and excludes all liability for any direct, indirect, implied, punitive, special, incidental or other consequential loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on this Article, the Kalkine website and any information published on the Kalkine website without any warranties or representations by Kalkine to you. To the extent the law prohibits or limits this exclusion, Kalkine limits its liability to the resupply of services.

Please also read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide for further information.

Employees and/or associates of Kalkine and its related entities may hold interests in the securities or other financial products covered in this Article or on the Kalkine website. Any such employees and associates are required to comply with certain safeguards, procedures and disclosures as required by law.

Some of the images/music that may be used in the Article are copyright to their respective owner(s). Kalkine does not claim ownership of any of the pictures displayed/music used in the Article unless stated otherwise. The images/music that may be used in the Article are taken from various sources on the internet, including paid subscriptions or are believed to be in public domain. We have used reasonable efforts to accredit the source wherever it was indicated or was found to be necessary.

Kalkine Media Pty Ltd, an affiliate of Kalkine Pty Ltd, may have received, or be entitled to receive, financial consideration in connection with providing information about certain entity(s) covered on its website.