Highlights

  • Ord Minnett has issued a Buy rating on Pantoro Gold (ASX: PNR) with a target price of AUD 6.35, implying approximately 63% upside from the current session price of AUD 3.900 — a gain of 2.094% or AUD 0.080 on volume of 1,713,449 shares and market cap of AUD 1.50 billion.
  • Pantoro Gold's H1 FY26 results (released March 2026) delivered EBITDA of AUD 135.5 million (vs AUD 63.8 million in H1 FY25), revenue of AUD 238.6 million (vs AUD 153.4 million), net cash from operations of AUD 128.3 million, and a cash and gold balance of AUD 216.5 million, with the company remaining debt-free and completely unhedged.
  • FY26 production guidance was revised to 86,000–92,000 ounces following impacts from ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell flooding in February 2026, equipment/personnel disruptions, and the planned transition to Redpath as sole underground contractor from 1 May 2026 — with a FID for the O'Briens and Crown South orebodies described as imminent.

 

Pantoro Gold (ASX:PNR) shares gained AUD 0.080, or 2.094%, to AUD 3.900 on the session, on volume of 1,713,449 shares with a bid-offer spread of AUD 3.820 to AUD 3.900 and market capitalisation of AUD 1.50 billion. Ord Minnett's Buy rating with a target price of AUD 6.35 implies approximately 63% upside from the current price — a premium that reflects the broker's forward earnings assessment of Pantoro's multi-mine Norseman growth trajectory, its debt-free and unhedged gold exposure, and the strong financial performance already demonstrated in H1 FY26. Ord Minnett is a well-regarded Australian equities research house, and its Buy rating at this price point positions Pantoro as a materially undervalued gold producer in the broker's assessment.

H1 FY26 Financial Results: EBITDA More Than Doubled

Pantoro Gold's H1 FY26 half-year statutory accounts, released in March 2026, delivered a significant improvement across all key financial metrics. EBITDA of AUD 135.5 million more than doubled from AUD 63.8 million in H1 FY25. Revenue grew 56% to AUD 238.6 million from AUD 153.4 million. Gross profit expanded from AUD 15.0 million to AUD 85.1 million. Net cash from operating activities increased to AUD 128.3 million from AUD 56.1 million.

The cash and gold balance at the end of the period was AUD 216.5 million (comprising AUD 189.4 million cash plus 4,133 ounces of gold in safe and circuit at AUD 6,558.27 per ounce), up from AUD 119.3 million at H1 FY25. Pantoro remains both debt-free and completely unhedged — a balance sheet position that provides maximum leverage to gold prices and maximum financial flexibility for capital allocation. Gold production for the half was 41,623 ounces.

FY26 Guidance Revision: 86,000–92,000 Ounces

Pantoro revised its FY26 full-year production guidance to 86,000–92,000 ounces following the impact of several operational factors in the second half of the year. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell in February 2026 resulted in more than 80mm of rain at the Scotia site, causing temporary flooding of multiple underground areas and interrupting open pit and haulage operations for several days, delaying production scheduled for February to March. Equipment and personnel availability disruptions during the January school holiday period also affected production. In addition, the planned transition to Redpath as sole underground contractor at the OK Underground Mine in the final quarter is expected to cause some short-term interruptions during the handover period.

Despite the guidance revision, management emphasised its focus on maximising cashflow from current operations while advancing the significant growth pipeline at Norseman, including additional underground mining areas planned to commence from FY2027. The company continues to invest heavily in exploration — AUD 63.4 million spent on exploration and major capital growth projects in H1 FY26, including 91,962 metres of drilling — as the foundation for multi-mine production growth.

Redpath as Sole Underground Contractor and Bullen FID Approaching

Redpath Australia Pty Ltd will become the sole underground contractor at Norseman as of 1 May 2026. Redpath is already the principal contractor at both the Scotia and Bullen Underground Mines, and agreements are being finalised to extend this role to existing and future new mines at Norseman. The operational synergies targeted include the ability to transfer personnel and equipment between mines on an as-needed basis, savings through shared site management, and coordination between the multiple underground operations.

A Final Investment Decision for commencement of mining of the O'Briens and Crown South orebodies — accessed via the Bullen decline — is described as imminent. Open pit mining commenced at the Gladstone Mining Centre in November 2025, with mining currently planned in Stages 1 and 2 to March 2027. Extensions to pit life are considered highly likely through the addition of the Daisy South Open Pit and Stage 3 at Gladstone. Exploration activities at Princess Royal are also underway toward the development of an underground mine there. This multi-front operational programme underpins Ord Minnett's confidence in Pantoro's production growth trajectory through FY27 and FY28.

Conclusion

Ord Minnett's Buy rating on Pantoro Gold at AUD 6.35 positions the stock as materially undervalued against the H1 FY26 financial performance — EBITDA of AUD 135.5 million (more than double H1 FY25), revenue of AUD 238.6 million, and AUD 216.5 million in cash and gold with zero debt and zero hedging. PNR shares gained 2.094% to AUD 3.900 on volume of 1.71 million and market cap of AUD 1.50 billion. With a Redpath sole contractor appointment from May 2026, imminent FID for O'Briens and Crown South, and multiple mine developments planned from FY2027, the pathway to higher production and earnings that supports Ord Minnett's AUD 6.35 target is taking operational shape.