Ord Minnett Issues Buy on Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL)

Sonal Goyal

21 April 2026 10:11 PM AEST

Ord Minnett Issues Buy on Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL)

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Highlights

Ord Minnett has issued a Buy rating on Amplitude Energy (ASX: AEL) with a target price of AUD 2.75, implying substantial upside from the current trading price of AUD 1.575 — a decline of 2.777% or AUD 0.045 on volume of 1,879,871 shares.
Amplitude Energy reported record quarterly revenue of AUD 74.1 million (+3% on Q2 FY26) and a record average realised gas price of AUD 10.74/GJ (+4% on Q2 FY26) in Q3 FY26, with record spot gas sales of 2.1 PJ representing approximately 35% of OGPP sales gas.
Two binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreements have been executed for the East Coast Supply Project — 30 PJ with EnergyAustralia and 20 PJ with AGL Energy, both targeting H2 CY2028 supply commencement — with FEED for the ECSP subsea development phase complete and on budget.

Amplitude Energy (ASX:AEL) shares declined AUD 0.045, or 2.777%, to AUD 1.575 on the session, on volume of 1,879,871 shares with a bid-offer spread of AUD 1.570 to AUD 1.590 and market capitalisation of AUD 485.80 million. Ord Minnett's Buy rating with a AUD 2.75 target price sits materially above the current trading level, implying approximately 75% upside from the prevailing price. The gap between the current share price and the broker's target reflects a disparity in how the market is pricing AEL relative to what Ord Minnett's fundamental analysis suggests the company's gas production assets, ECSP development pathway, and long-term contracted revenue stream are worth.

Q3 FY26 Financial Performance: Records Across Revenue and Pricing

Amplitude Energy's Q3 FY26 quarterly report delivered a series of record financial metrics. Total quarterly revenue reached AUD 74.1 million, a 3% increase on Q2 FY26, with the average realised gas price of AUD 10.74 per gigajoule marking a 4% improvement on the prior quarter. The revenue result was underpinned by record spot gas sales of 2.1 PJ — equivalent to 23.7 TJ/day — representing approximately 35% of sales gas from the Orbost Gas Processing Plant (OGPP). Total Q3 FY26 gas and liquids volumes sold were 6.78 PJe, 2% lower than Q2 FY26, with the shortfall in gas volume offset by stronger pricing and the uplift in spot sales.

Liquids revenue was AUD 2.6 million in the quarter, up from AUD 1.1 million in Q2 FY26, reflecting higher Cooper Basin oil volumes sold (19,005 bbls vs 9,855 bbls) at an average oil price realisation of AUD 136.77/bbl compared to AUD 97.96/bbl in Q2 FY26. Crude oil inventory at 31 March 2026 was 13,263 barrels. Group production for the quarter was 6.86 PJe, or 76.2 TJe/day, maintaining operational continuity across the Gippsland, Otway, and Cooper basins.

OGPP: New Production Records Above Nameplate Capacity

The Orbost Gas Processing Plant (OGPP) — the central processing hub for Amplitude Energy's Gippsland Basin gas production — set new production records during Q3 FY26, with successful production trials above prior nameplate capacity. A 7-day average production rate of 71.0 TJ/day and a 30-day average rate of 70.2 TJ/day were achieved, demonstrating that debottlenecking efforts have meaningfully expanded the plant's effective throughput. Further debottlenecking work and production improvement initiatives are expected to continue in Q4 FY26, with management indicating additional capacity gains remain achievable.

The Otway Basin also contributed incremental volumes following the completion of Casino-4 well maintenance work, with additional gas production from the Casino-4 well expected. Cooper Basin development activity resulted in liquids production from new Callawonga wells during the quarter. The combination of OGPP debottlenecking, Casino-4 production additions, and Callawonga liquids reinforces the multi-basin production base that Ord Minnett's Buy thesis likely incorporates in its forward earnings model.

ECSP: Two Foundation Gas Sales Agreements and FEED Complete

Amplitude Energy's East Coast Supply Project (ECSP) made significant commercial progress in Q3 FY26 through the execution of two binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreements. On 2 March 2026, a GSA with EnergyAustralia was executed, covering 30 PJ of gas (7.5 PJ per annum) from ECSP production over an initial four-year term, at a fixed price subject to annual CPI escalation, with supply targeted to commence in H2 CY2028. On 17 April 2026, a second GSA was executed with AGL Energy for 20 PJ (5 PJ per annum) over an initial four-year term, at an oil-linked price, also targeting H2 2028 supply. Amplitude is in additional negotiations with other gas customers regarding further ECSP supply contracts.

The FEED for the ECSP subsea development phase has been completed, with the project reported to be on budget and on schedule for first gas by CY2028. The Transocean Equinox drilling rig has been released to the next consortium member following completion of the Elanora and Isabella exploration prospects. The ECSP GSAs are conditional on drilling results confirming minimum reserve bookings and a Final Investment Decision, meaning the commercial underpinning will progressively strengthen as the drilling programme advances.

Ord Minnett's Buy Rating in Context

Ord Minnett's Buy rating at AUD 2.75 places AEL's implied value at approximately 75% above the current trading price of AUD 1.575. This represents a substantial premium that the broker assigns based on its assessment of the company's production trajectory, the ECSP's contribution to future cash flows from 2028, the strengthening of contracted revenue through the EnergyAustralia and AGL GSAs, and the ongoing OGPP capacity expansion above prior nameplate levels. For a gas producer operating in Australia's east coast domestic gas market — where structural supply shortfalls and geopolitical-driven energy security priorities continue to support elevated pricing — the combination of record near-term revenue and a maturing development project provides the analytical foundation for a materially higher broker target than the current market price.

Conclusion

Ord Minnett's Buy rating on Amplitude Energy at a AUD 2.75 target price frames the investment case around a stock trading at AUD 1.575 — a 2.777% session decline — that has delivered record Q3 FY26 revenue of AUD 74.1 million, record gas pricing of AUD 10.74/GJ, two binding Foundation Gas Sales Agreements with EnergyAustralia and AGL for the ECSP, and new OGPP production records above prior nameplate capacity. With a market capitalisation of AUD 485.80 million, FEED complete for ECSP, and additional debottlenecking work planned for Q4, Amplitude Energy's near-term production momentum and medium-term ECSP development pipeline form the core of the bull case that Ord Minnett is pricing at AUD 2.75.

FAQs

What is Ord Minnett's rating and target price for AEL?

Ord Minnett has issued a Buy rating on Amplitude Energy (ASX: AEL) with a target price of AUD 2.75, implying approximately 75% upside from the current trading price of AUD 1.575.

What did Amplitude Energy report in Q3 FY26?

AEL reported record quarterly revenue of AUD 74.1 million (+3% on Q2 FY26), a record average realised gas price of AUD 10.74/GJ (+4%), record spot gas sales of 2.1 PJ, and group production of 6.86 PJe.

What are the ECSP Foundation Gas Sales Agreements?

Amplitude Energy executed a 30 PJ GSA with EnergyAustralia (7.5 PJ/year, fixed price with CPI escalation) and a 20 PJ GSA with AGL Energy (5 PJ/year, oil-linked price), both targeting H2 CY2028 supply commencement from the ECSP.

What records did the OGPP set in Q3 FY26?

The Orbost Gas Processing Plant achieved a 7-day average production rate of 71.0 TJ/day and a 30-day average rate of 70.2 TJ/day — both above prior nameplate capacity — following successful production trials and debottlenecking work.

What is AEL's current share price and market cap?

AEL shares fell AUD 0.045 (2.777%) to AUD 1.575 on volume of 1,879,871 shares. The bid-offer spread was AUD 1.570 to AUD 1.590 and market capitalisation was AUD 485.80 million.

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