Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) Broker Watch: Consensus Buy at AUD 198.50

Sonal Goyal

21 April 2026 10:12 PM AEST

Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) Broker Watch: Consensus Buy at AUD 198.50

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Highlights

EODHD/Others consensus data assigns a Buy rating to Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW) with a consensus target price of AUD 198.50, against a current session price of AUD 126.180 — a gain of 2.112% or AUD 2.610 on volume of 212,941 shares and a market cap of AUD 10.03 billion.
Light & Wonder's FY25 full-year results delivered record consolidated AEBITDA of AUD 1.44 billion (+16% year-on-year), Adjusted NPATA of AUD 567 million (+18%), full-year revenue of AUD 3.3 billion, free cash flow of AUD 452 million (+42%), and AUD 877 million returned to shareholders through share repurchases.
Q4 FY25 set records across all three business segments — Gaming (7,000 North American unit shipments, Gaming operations revenue +35%), iGaming (record quarterly revenue and AEBITDA), and SciPlay (growing DTC revenue) — alongside Grover charitable gaming adding 345 units sequentially and entering the Indiana market.

Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) shares gained AUD 2.610, or 2.112%, to AUD 126.180 on the session, on volume of 212,941 shares with a bid-offer spread of AUD 125.000 to AUD 128.550 and market capitalisation of AUD 10.03 billion. The EODHD/Others consensus Buy at AUD 198.50 implies approximately 57% upside from the current trading price — a premium that the aggregated analyst community assigns to the company's FY2028 financial targets, its diversified gaming platform across hardware, igaming, and social casino segments, and the structural growth of North American gaming operations as premium installed base continues to expand.

FY25 Full Year: Record AEBITDA, Adjusted NPATA, and Cash Generation

Light & Wonder delivered FY25 consolidated revenue of AUD 3.3 billion, an increase of 4% on the prior year, with consolidated AEBITDA (a non-GAAP measure) growing 16% to AUD 1.44 billion and Adjusted NPATA increasing 18% to AUD 567 million, equivalent to AUD 6.69 per share — a 27% increase. These results were within the company's previously provided FY25 financial outlook of AUD 1.43–1.47 billion in consolidated AEBITDA and AUD 550–575 million in Adjusted NPATA.

Cash generation was a standout feature of the full-year result. Cash flows from operating activities grew 26% year-on-year to AUD 794 million, while free cash flow increased 42% to AUD 452 million. The company returned AUD 877 million to shareholders through share or CDI repurchases at an average price of AUD 86.80 during FY25, with approximately 78% of the authorised repurchase programme now complete and AUD 336 million of remaining capacity. Reported full-year net income was AUD 276 million, impacted by a AUD 128 million legal settlement charge associated with the Aristocrat matter, a AUD 25 million contingent acquisition consideration fair value adjustment, and AUD 37 million in ASX transition and Grover acquisition costs.

Q4 FY25: Record Unit Shipments and All-Segment AEBITDA

The fourth quarter of FY25 was described by management as a strong finish to 2025. Consolidated AEBITDA grew 29% to AUD 405 million, with Adjusted NPATA up 27% to AUD 161 million and up 38% per share to AUD 1.96. Fourth quarter consolidated revenue increased 12% to AUD 891 million.

Gaming revenue increased 17% year-on-year to AUD 602 million in Q4, driven by record gaming machine sales of AUD 234 million (+20%) and gaming operations revenue growth of 35% to AUD 237 million. North American gaming machine unit shipments reached a record 7,000 units in the quarter. North American gaming operations premium installed base grew for 22 consecutive quarters, adding over 700 units during Q4 and over 2,680 units year-over-year. Grover charitable gaming expanded by 345 units sequentially and entered the Indiana market. iGaming delivered quarterly record revenue and AEBITDA on continued US momentum underpinned by first-party content proliferation and partner network growth. SciPlay continued to grow its direct-to-consumer revenue.

Consensus Buy at AUD 198.50: The FY2028 Target Framework

The consensus Buy at AUD 198.50 is anchored to Light & Wonder's FY2028 financial targets, which the company has confirmed its commitment to following the completion of its three-year financial cycle at the end of FY25. The targets were not detailed in the FY25 announcement, but the company's track record of meeting or exceeding its FY25 guidance range (AUD 1.43–1.47 billion AEBITDA guidance versus AUD 1.44 billion delivered) provides analytical confidence in management's forward guidance credibility.

From an analyst perspective, the multi-segment structure of Light & Wonder's business — Gaming hardware, Gaming operations, iGaming, and SciPlay — provides diversified revenue drivers that reduce dependence on any single market or product cycle. The combination of hardware unit volume growth, a recurring installed base premium fee stream, iGaming content expansion, and social casino DTC monetisation creates multiple earnings growth levers that consensus analysts are pricing at AUD 198.50 against the current AUD 126.18 trading level.

Conclusion

Light & Wonder's consensus Buy rating at AUD 198.50 reflects analyst confidence in the company's execution track record — FY25 delivered record AEBITDA of AUD 1.44 billion, record Q4 unit shipments of 7,000 North American machines, 22 consecutive quarters of premium installed base growth, AUD 877 million in buybacks, and free cash flow growth of 42%. LNW shares gained 2.112% to AUD 126.180 on volume of 212,941 and a market cap of AUD 10.03 billion. The gap between the current price and the AUD 198.50 target frames the market's current pricing as not fully reflecting the FY2028 financial targets to which management remains committed.

FAQs

What is the consensus broker rating and target for LNW?

Refinitiv consensus assigns a Buy rating to Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW) with a consensus target price of AUD 198.50, implying approximately 57% upside from the current trading price of AUD 126.180.

What were Light & Wonder's key FY25 results?

FY25 delivered record consolidated AEBITDA of AUD 1.44 billion (+16%), Adjusted NPATA of AUD 567 million (+18%), full-year revenue of AUD 3.3 billion, free cash flow of AUD 452 million (+42%), and AUD 877 million returned to shareholders via repurchases.

What records did Q4 FY25 set?

Q4 set records for all three segments: Gaming machine sales of AUD 234 million, record 7,000 North American unit shipments, gaming operations revenue +35% to AUD 237 million, 22nd consecutive quarter of premium installed base growth, and record iGaming quarterly revenue and AEBITDA.

What was the Aristocrat legal settlement?

Light & Wonder incurred a AUD 128 million legal settlement charge in FY25 associated with a strategic resolution of the Aristocrat matter. This item, along with ASX transition costs and fair value adjustments, reduced reported net income from its underlying trajectory.

How did LNW shares perform on the session?

LNW shares gained AUD 2.610 (2.112%) to AUD 126.180 on volume of 212,941 shares. The bid-offer spread was AUD 125.000 to AUD 128.550 and market capitalisation was AUD 10.03 billion.

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