Highlights

  • Bell Potter carries a Hold rating on Coronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN) at AUD 0.30 — the stock has appreciated 110% over 12 months and recently completed the sale of its loss-making Logan Mining Complex, simplifying the portfolio to its core Curragh and Buchanan metallurgical coal operations
  • Red Cloud Klondike Strike and Moelis Australia Securities both carry Buy ratings on Alkane Resources (ASX: ALK) at AUD 2.30, a target that implies approximately 51% upside from the current price of AUD 1.52 following a 100% 12-month gain
  • Alkane's Q3 FY2026 results (15 May 2026) delivered record quarterly net profit of AUD 93 million, EBITDA of AUD 161.2 million, free Cash Flow of AUD 127.6 million, and a closing cash, bullion, and liquid Investment balance of AUD 374 million — all driven by the Mandalay combination adding Costerfield and Bjorkdal to the Tomingley base

 

Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) and Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) share three surface-level similarities: both are ASX-listed mining companies, both have delivered 100% or greater share price returns over the past 12 months, and both currently trade below their published broker price targets. Beyond those points, the two stocks could not be more different in terms of Commodity exposure, operational profile, and the nature of the broker conviction behind each rating.

CRN is a metallurgical coal producer with operations in Queensland and Virginia, rated Hold by Bell Potter at AUD 0.30. ALK is a multi-mine gold and antimony producer, rated Buy by two separate institutions at AUD 2.30. The contrast between a Hold after 110% gains in coal and two Buy ratings after 100% gains in gold tells a story about where institutional Brokers see the risk-reward balance in each sector at current valuations.

Coronado Global Resources (CRN) — Bell Potter Hold at AUD 0.30

Coronado Global Resources is trading at AUD 0.25 as of 26 May 2026, a 3.08% decline on the day. Over the past 12 months, the stock has appreciated 110% — a substantial return for a metallurgical coal producer navigating volatile PLV pricing, geopolitical freight disruptions, and the structural deterioration of the US High Volatile coal market. Bell Potter has maintained a Hold rating at AUD 0.30, implying approximately 20% residual upside from current levels.

The Logan Divestment: A Strategic Reset

The most material recent development for CRN is the 25 May 2026 announcement of the sale of the Logan Mining Complex in West Virginia to Phoenix Coal Holdings LLC. The consideration is nominal cash, adjusted for Working Capital, with the purchaser assuming reclamation and post-closing operational obligations. At first glance, selling an asset for nominal consideration might appear to concede value. In the context of Logan's situation, it is the opposite.

Logan had been operating in the US High Volatile metallurgical coal market — a segment under structural pressure. Reduced European steel production, shifts in trade flows, and competition among US High Vol suppliers had eroded both export pathways and pricing. Coronado issued a WARN Act notice in February 2026, and Logan was subsequently idled as the company sought profitable sales pathways for remaining inventory. A care and maintenance operation with uncertain market recovery timelines, future reclamation obligations, and ongoing fixed costs is a Liability rather than an asset. The divestment removes all of those costs and obligations, allowing Coronado to concentrate capital on Curragh and Buchanan — the operations that carry PLV-linked pricing and structural cost advantages.

Q1 2026: Planned Disruption With Improving Trajectory

The March 2026 quarterly results reflected deliberate one-time activities: a two-week CHPP shutdown at Curragh and two longwall moves at Buchanan. Both activities temporarily reduced volumes and elevated unit costs. Both are complete. With those activities behind it, the operational setup for Q2 and beyond is notably cleaner.

Buchanan delivered its best quarter-on-quarter improvement in recent memory: sales volumes up 18.3%, saleable production up 19.3%, and Met Coal realised pricing improving 18.3% to levels that reflect the higher quality, PLV-linked character of Buchanan production. Both longwalls are now operational and expansion infrastructure is fully commissioned. Buchanan's contribution to Group Met Coal realised pricing was the primary driver of the 16.3% improvement in US Met Coal pricing quarter-on-quarter.

At Curragh, overburden removal progressed well during the maintenance period, positioning coal availability for the remainder of the year. Australian thermal coal receipts improved materially following the Stanwell arrangement reset in 2025, with Curragh thermal tonnes achieving approximately 90% of the NEWC benchmark — an improvement from prior arrangements that is meaningful for Margin. The Group average realised pricing reached USD 133.2 per tonne in Q1 2026, up 9.1% quarter-on-quarter despite lower sales volumes.

Alkane Resources (ALK) — Red Cloud and Moelis Australia Buy at AUD 2.30

Alkane Resources is trading at AUD 1.52 on 26 May 2026, unchanged on the day. Red Cloud Klondike Strike and Moelis Australia Securities both carry Buy ratings at AUD 2.30, representing approximately 51% implied upside. The convergence of two independent research teams on an identical target is analytically significant. Different firms, different financial models, different assumptions — arriving at the same number typically indicates a shared view of the Earnings run rate, cash generation capacity, and asset base value that is unlikely to be coincidental.

Q3 FY2026 Results: A Step-Change, Not an Incremental Improvement

Alkane's Q3 FY2026 financial results are best understood by comparing them to the same quarter one year earlier. In Q3 2025, before the Mandalay combination, revenues were AUD 63.2 million and EBITDA was AUD 20.8 million. In Q3 2026, revenues were AUD 274.4 million and EBITDA was AUD 161.2 million. Net profit reached a record AUD 93.0 million, equating to 6.81 cents per share. Free cash flow was AUD 127.6 million. The closing cash, bullion, and liquid investment position was AUD 374 million — comprising AUD 328 million cash, AUD 34 million bullion, and AUD 12 million liquid investments.

These numbers are not the product of a favourable gold price alone, though that is a contributor. They reflect a company that has tripled its production base through the Mandalay Acquisition and is now generating earnings at a scale that was not visible 12 months ago. Gold equivalent sales of 43,373 oz were realised at AUD 6,315 per oz, and antimony production was 377 tonnes at AUD 34,394 per tonne (down from AUD 42,488 per tonne in Q2 2026, but still at historically elevated levels). The dual-commodity Revenue stream — gold plus antimony — provides a Diversification within the resource exposure that few comparable ASX producers can offer.

The Mandalay Combination: Costerfield and Bjorkdal

The transformation of Alkane's earnings profile is almost entirely attributable to the Mandalay Resources combination. Costerfield, in Victoria, is a gold-antimony operation with Q3 2026 operating costs of AUD 28.0 million. Bjorkdal, in Sweden, is a gold operation with Q3 2026 operating costs of AUD 33.8 million and underground capital development of AUD 7.1 million during the quarter. Both Assets have been fully integrated into the group's financial reporting, and their collective contribution to EBITDA is material.

Cash operating costs per gold equivalent ounce produced were AUD 2,037 in Q3 2026 — identical to Q3 2025. The per-unit cost discipline has been maintained even as total costs rose from AUD 39.3 million to AUD 114.0 million — a direct consequence of managing three mines rather than one. AISC rose to AUD 2,928 per oz from AUD 2,590 per oz, primarily due to higher sustaining capital at the acquired assets. Tomingley AISC fell to AUD 2,444 per oz year-on-year as production increased.

Capital Allocation: Sustaining, Growth, and Exploration

Total Capital Expenditure in Q3 2026 was AUD 46.9 million. Growth capital of AUD 10 million was invested in the Newell Highway realignment at Tomingley — a project that, upon completion in the first half of 2027, will enable expanded pit access. Sustaining capital of AUD 24.3 million included AUD 19.0 million at the Mandalay assets for underground development and equipment. Exploration investment reached AUD 12.5 million: AUD 6.6 million at Costerfield, AUD 2.8 million at Bjorkdal, and AUD 3.0 million of non-operational exploratory drilling in NSW. Alkane has confirmed it is on track to meet full-year 2026 guidance.

Conclusion

The broker positioning on Coronado Global Resources and Alkane Resources reflects two different calculations about where in the value realisation cycle each stock sits. Bell Potter's Hold on CRN at AUD 0.30 acknowledges a fundamentally improved operational profile — Logan divested, Buchanan expanded, Curragh positioned for recovery — but assigns limited near-term upside until Q2 2026 results confirm the production and margin trajectory management has guided toward. Red Cloud's and Moelis' dual Buy on ALK at AUD 2.30 reflects a shared conviction that Alkane's record quarterly earnings represent a genuine new earnings baseline for the post-Mandalay Business, and that the market has not yet awarded the stock a valuation consistent with that baseline. For investors tracking both names, the next Quarterly Report from each will be the primary test of whether those broker positions remain defensible or require revision.

 

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is Bell Potter's rating on CRN a Hold rather than a Buy after the Logan divestment?

A: Bell Potter's Hold at AUD 0.30 reflects a view that Coronado's stock is broadly fairly valued at or near the target after its 110% 12-month run. The Logan divestment is a positive strategic action, but the residual upside of approximately 20% to target does not meet Bell Potter's threshold for a Buy upgrade. A formal upgrade would likely require confirmation of Q2 2026 production recovery and further evidence of sustained PLV pricing above USD 200 per tonne.

Q: What drove Alkane's record Q3 FY2026 results?

A: The primary driver was the Mandalay Resources combination, which added the Costerfield gold-antimony mine in Victoria and the Bjorkdal gold mine in Sweden to the existing Tomingley operation. The three-mine, dual-commodity structure generated revenues of AUD 274.4 million in Q3 2026 versus AUD 63.2 million in Q3 2025. Elevated gold (AUD 6,315 per oz realised) and antimony (AUD 34,394 per tonne) prices were also supportive.

Q: What is the significance of two brokers having identical Buy targets on ALK?

A: Red Cloud Klondike Strike and Moelis Australia are independent firms with separate analytical teams. Their convergence on AUD 2.30 suggests both have arrived at similar conclusions about the sustainable earnings capacity of the post-Mandalay Alkane business, rather than simply tracking each other. Identical targets from independent houses typically indicate that the underlying analysis is reaching a shared conclusion rather than diverging.

Q: What is the biggest near-term risk for CRN shareholders?

A: The primary near-term risk is that Q2 2026 Curragh production recovery disappoints relative to management guidance, which would delay the earnings normalisation story and potentially pressure Bell Potter's AUD 0.30 target. A sustained strengthening of the Australian dollar above 0.70 is also a material variable — each one-cent movement represents approximately USD 15 million of full-year cash flow impact.

Q: What commodity risks do CRN and ALK respectively face?

A: CRN's primary commodity risk is a decline in PLV metallurgical coal pricing from current levels near USD 220 per tonne — which would reduce realised revenue at both Curragh and Buchanan. ALK faces a dual commodity risk: a gold price normalisation from elevated AUD 6,300+ per oz levels, and an antimony price reversion from historically high levels near AUD 34,000 per tonne. Both companies are exposed to commodity cycles that are, by definition, mean-reverting over time.