Ampol (ASX:ALD) Shares on Investor’s Radar as Jefferies Sets AUD 32 Target

Sonal Goyal

07 March 2026 01:44 AM AEDT

Ampol (ASX:ALD) Shares on Investor’s Radar as Jefferies Sets AUD 32 Target

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Key Highlights

Jefferies issued a Buy rating on Ampol with a target price of AUD 32.00.
The ACCC Phase 2 review of Ampol’s proposed acquisition of EG Australia continues, with a decision expected by 5 June 2026.
Ampol reported FY2025 RCOP EBITDA of AUD 1.44 billion and RCOP NPAT of AUD 429 million, alongside a fully franked dividend of AUD 1.00 per share for the year.

Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD) has drawn market attention following a broker upgrade and latest regulatory developments linked to its proposed acquisition of EG Australia. Investment bank Jefferies issued a Buy rating with a target price of AUD 32.00.

On 2 March 2026, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) continues its Phase 2 review of the proposed transaction. The developments come shortly after Ampol reported its FY2025 financial results, outlining earnings performance and dividend declarations.

ACCC Continues Review of EG Australia Acquisition

On 2 March 2026, Ampol confirmed that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) published a summary of the Notice of Competition Concerns (NOCC) related to the proposed acquisition of EG Australia.

Earlier, on 21 January 2026, the regulator determined the transaction would require a Phase 2 review, a more detailed assessment under Australia’s mandatory merger framework.

According to the ACCC’s preliminary assessment:

54 EG Australia sites across 51 local areas have been identified as locations where competition concerns may arise.
The regulator is also examining 20 additional local areas, where a preliminary determination has not yet been made.

Ampol noted that this represents progress in the regulator’s review process compared with the 115 sites initially flagged for further review in January.

The ACCC is also assessing potential metropolitan-wide impacts in major cities including Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, and Canberra.

Following the proposed acquisition, Ampol indicated that its market share by site in those areas would be approximately:

Brisbane – 21%
Melbourne – 19%
Sydney – 20%
Canberra – 31%

The regulator is expected to deliver a final decision by 5 June 2026.

FY2025 Earnings and Dividend Update

The regulatory update follows the release of Ampol’s FY2025 financial results on 23 February 2026, which outlined earnings across its retail and fuel infrastructure operations.

Crucial Financial Metrics

RCOP EBITDA: AUD AUD 1.44 billion
RCOP EBIT: AUD AUD 947 million
RCOP NPAT: AUD AUD 429 million
Statutory NPAT: AUD AUD 82.4 million
Adjusted Net Debt / RCOP EBITDA: 2.3×
Final dividend: AUD AUD 0.60 per share (fully franked)
Total FY2025 dividend: AUD AUD 1.00 per share (fully franked)

Ampol reported earnings growth across its Convenience Retail, Fuels and Infrastructure, and New Zealand segments during the period.

Strategic Transaction Timeline

Ampol and EG Australia have the opportunity to respond to the competition concerns outlined by the ACCC as part of the Phase 2 process.

The regulator’s review includes analysis of local fuel retail markets and metropolitan-wide impacts. Under the current timeline, the ACCC must provide a determination on the proposed transaction by 5 June 2026.

Ampol remains engaged with regulators as the ACCC continues its review of the proposed EG Australia acquisition. The broker upgrade from Jefferies and the regulator’s ongoing assessment have placed the company under investor focus. Market participants are expected to monitor further updates from both the regulator and the company ahead of the June decision deadline.

FAQ

Why did Jefferies issue a Buy rating on Ampol?

Jefferies assigned a Buy rating with a target price of AUD AUD 32.00 on 2 March 2026, drawing investor attention to the company’s strategy and earnings outlook.

What is the ACCC reviewing regarding Ampol?

The ACCC is conducting a Phase 2 review of Ampol’s proposed acquisition of EG Australia, examining competition effects across several local fuel markets and major metropolitan areas.

When will the ACCC make its decision?

The regulator is scheduled to issue a final determination by 5 June 2026 under the current merger review timetable.

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