Highlights

  • BHP shares fell 3.12% to AUD 48.79, despite gains of over 21% in the past year.
  • Macquarie maintained a Neutral rating with a target price of AUD 51.00.
  • FY26 copper production guidance was increased to 1,900–2,000 kt.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) shares declined on Thursday, tracking broader market weakness and renewed attention on broker commentary. The stock fell 3.12% to AUD 48.79 on 6 February, despite remaining up more than 21% over the past year. The decline followed a Neutral rating from Macquarie, which set a target price of AUD 51.00.

Share Price Movement Lags Broader Index

BHP’s intraday fall came as the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2.03% to 8,708.80, while the S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index declined 2.72% to 7,656.30. Although the stock has gained 22.28% over the past six months, Thursday’s decline placed it among the weaker performers in the mining sector for the session.

Macquarie’s Neutral stance suggests limited valuation movement, despite recent operational updates and revised production guidance.

Copper Guidance Revised Higher

BHP reported copper production of 490.5 kilotonnes (kt) in Q2 FY26, down 1% quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year. Half-year copper production totalled 984.1 kt, in line with the prior corresponding period.

FY26 copper guidance was revised upward to a range of 1,900–2,000 kt, from a previous range of 1,800–2,000 kt. Guidance increases were also recorded at Escondida, now expected to produce between 1,200–1,275 kt, and Antamina, with guidance lifted to 140–150 kt.

Iron Ore and Coal Output Maintained

Iron ore production reached 69.7 million tonnes (Mt) in Q2 FY26, representing a 9% increase from Q1 and a 5% increase year-on-year. Half-year production stood at 133.8 Mt, with FY26 guidance unchanged at 258–269 Mt.

Steelmaking coal production at BMA declined 12% quarter-on-quarter to 4.3 Mt, while energy coal output at NSWEC rose 31% to 4.6 Mt during the quarter. FY26 guidance for both coal segments remained unchanged.

BHP’s share price decline on Thursday followed broader market weakness and ongoing broker assessment of valuation following recent production updates. While copper guidance was revised higher, iron ore and coal outlooks remained unchanged, with investor focus continuing on commodity pricing trends and delivery against FY26 guidance.

FAQs

Why did BHP shares fall today?
The stock declined amid broader market weakness and following a Neutral rating from Macquarie.

What is Macquarie’s target price for BHP?
Macquarie set a target price of AUD 51.00 per share.

Did BHP change its FY26 guidance?
Yes, FY26 copper production guidance was increased, while iron ore and coal guidance remained unchanged.