Highlights

  • RKEF operations delivered Adjusted EBITDA of US$85.8 million in Q1 2026, a 145% increase from Q4 2025, with EBITDA per tonne of nickel surging 155% to US$2,842 — a dramatic turnaround in unit profitability.
  • The Mining segment posted Adjusted EBITDA of US$29.0 million in Q1 2026 compared to a US$14.9 million loss in Q4 2025, driven by ore production expanding 138% and unit operating costs falling 61% to US$15.7/wmt.
  • Post-quarter, Nickel Industries executed US$450 million in Unsecured Loan facilities, signalling access to institutional Capital and providing the financial firepower to support ENC HPAL commissioning and further growth Investment.

Few ASX stocks have delivered the kind of twelve-month performance that Nickel Industries Limited (ASX:NIC) has posted. Trading at $1.10 on 13 May 2026, the stock is up 74.13% over the preceding year — a return that places it well ahead of the broader market and most Commodity peers. On the day, it added a modest 0.18%, reflecting a degree of consolidation after an extended run. The natural question for both existing holders and prospective investors is whether this momentum reflects a Business that has fundamentally re-rated or whether the stock is approaching Fair Value after a period of exceptional price appreciation.

The most recent Quarterly Activities Report, covering the March 2026 quarter, provides a detailed and largely encouraging picture of operations. Total Adjusted EBITDA from operations reached US$135.6 million for the quarter — a figure drawn from three distinct business segments: RKEF (rotary kiln electric furnace) processing, HPAL (High Pressure Acid Leach) operations, and the newly resurgent mining segment. Each of these delivered different stories but a consistent theme: improving profitability.

RKEF Operations: The Engine Room Fires Up

The RKEF segment, which processes nickel ore into nickel pig iron through operations at the Hengjaya Nickel (HNI), Ranger Nickel (RNI), Angel Nickel (ANI), and Oracle Nickel (ONI) projects, is the company's core Earnings driver. In Q1 2026, it produced 30,264 tonnes of nickel — marginally lower than the 31,561 tonnes in Q4 2025. However, production Volume was not the headline. The headline was profitability.

Adjusted EBITDA from RKEF operations reached US$85.8 million in the quarter, a 145% increase from US$35.0 million in Q4 2025. EBITDA per tonne of nickel surged from US$1,114 to US$2,842 — a 155% improvement. This remarkable shift in unit Economics is significant. It suggests that the RKEF business is now operating at a price and cost configuration that allows substantially higher cash flows per unit produced. Cash costs per tonne did increase modestly from US$10,088 to US$10,453, but this was more than offset by the improvement in realised Revenue per tonne, reflecting both nickel price movements and product mix optimisation.

HPAL Operations: Steady Contribution and the ENC Pipeline

The HPAL segment, where Nickel Industries holds a 10% interest in the Huayue Nickel Cobalt (HNC) project, produced 2,153 attributable tonnes of nickel in Q1 2026 — essentially flat versus the 2,144 tonnes in Q4 2025. Adjusted EBITDA from HPAL operations grew 21% to US$20.7 million, with EBITDA per tonne improving from US$8,307 to US$9,992. Cash costs per tonne rose to US$10,182, but the improvement in realised values meant margins expanded.

The more transformational development in the HPAL space is the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) project, in which Nickel Industries increased its interest from 44% to 46% during the quarter through an Acquisition of an additional 2% for US$46 million. The ENC project is currently in pre-commissioning of major processes and infrastructure. Once commissioned, ENC will materially expand the company's HPAL exposure and provide access to battery-grade nickel and cobalt products — a market with significant structural Demand growth linked to the energy transition.

Mining Operations: A Dramatic Reversal

Perhaps the most striking element of the Q1 2026 report was the performance of the Mining segment — specifically the Hengjaya Mine, where the company holds an 80% interest. The mine received its 2026 RKAB (Indonesian mining Quota licence) covering 14.3 million tonnes, approximately 60% higher than the prior year allocation. This step-change in permitted volumes directly translated into dramatically improved operational metrics.

Ore production jumped 138% to 3.96 million wet metric tonnes (wmt) in Q1 2026, and ore sales more than tripled to 3.04 million wmt. More significantly, unit operating costs collapsed from US$40.4/wmt in Q4 2025 to just US$15.7/wmt — a 61% reduction driven by the Fixed Cost Leverage effect of much higher throughput. The Adjusted EBITDA swing was dramatic: from a loss of US$14.9 million in Q4 2025 to a profit of US$29.0 million in Q1 2026. This segment was a drag on group results just one quarter ago; it is now a meaningful positive contributor.

Capital Structure and the $450 Million Facility

Subsequent to the quarter end, Nickel Industries executed US$450 million in unsecured loan facilities. While specific terms were not detailed in the Quarterly Report, the execution of unsecured facilities of this scale signals that institutional lenders are comfortable with the company's Credit profile and earnings trajectory. Unsecured borrowing at meaningful scale is typically a reflection of lender confidence in a company's cash generation capacity — which, based on Q1 2026 results, appears well-founded with total Adjusted EBITDA of US$135.6 million for a single quarter.

The capital will likely support the ongoing ENC HPAL development, Working Capital associated with higher ore production, and potentially further acquisitions or capacity expansions within the Nickel Industries portfolio. The Sampala nickel ore resource project, in which the company has entered binding agreements to acquire a 60% interest, also represents a pipeline expansion that will require funding as development progresses.

Conclusion

Nickel Industries has delivered a remarkable twelve months of share price performance, and the Q1 2026 quarterly results suggest the operational underpinning for that run is genuine rather than sentiment-driven. With RKEF EBITDA surging 145%, mining operations swinging from loss to material profit, and the ENC HPAL project nearing commissioning, the company is approaching a juncture where its earnings base could expand materially beyond current levels. The US$450 million post-quarter financing further underscores the institutional confidence in its Balance Sheet. Investors considering NIC will need to weigh the significant gains already captured against the pipeline of growth catalysts that remain ahead of the stock.