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Economic News

"Go Up a Bit Further": Bullock on Repayments Climbing Past the 4.35% Era

From early May until the end of September, the cash rate target sat at 4.35 per cent. That setting became a reference point for borrowers and for the Reserve Bank alike. On 29 September, the Monetary Policy Board moved past it, lifting the target …

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

CET1 Dips Only to About 11.6%: Inside the RBA's Toughest Bank Health Test

Stress tests are designed to answer an uncomfortable question: what happens to the banks if almost everything goes wrong at once? In its October 2026 Financial Stability Review (FSR), released on 1 October, the Reserve Bank put Australia's banking system through a severe adverse …

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

Who Are the 2%? The Small Group of Borrowers Running Short Each Month

Averages and medians tend to dominate discussion of how households are coping with higher interest rates. The typical borrower, the RBA reports, has a sizeable cushion of savings and a loan that is comfortably smaller than the value of their home. But financial stability …

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

From Under 1% to Around 5%: How Negative Equity Would React to a Price Shock

Negative equity is one of those terms that tends to surface whenever housing prices fall. It describes a borrower whose outstanding loan is larger than the value of the property securing it. With housing prices now declining in most capital cities, the Reserve Bank's …

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

Arrears Still Near Pre-Pandemic Levels Despite Four Hikes This Year

Mortgage arrears are one of the bluntest measures of household strain. A loan 90 days or more behind signals a borrower who has fallen well behind, not one juggling a tight month.

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

Auction Clearance Rates Below Long-Run Averages: The Housing Signal Kent Flagged

Auction results are among the most closely watched numbers in Australian housing, offering a quick read on how eager buyers are.

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

Did Budget Tax Changes Cool Established Housing? Christopher Kent Explains the Housing Demand Impact

Central bankers choose their words with care, and the qualifiers often matter as much as the claims. On 13 August, in his remarks in Sydney, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent offered an observation that went beyond interest rates.

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

"Further Tightening in Financial Conditions": Translating the Board's Phrase for Borrowers

Monetary policy statements are written for precision, not for the kitchen table. So when the Monetary Policy Board explained its decision on 29 September to lift the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, the key justification came in central …

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

Three Weeks to 3 November: A Borrower's Countdown to the Next Rate Call

Tuesday 3 November, 2.30 pm. That is when the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board will next announce its decision on the cash rate target, now 4.60 per cent after a 25 basis point rise on 29 September.

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026

Illustration: Four Quarter-Point Rises on a $400,000 Variable Loan, Worked Through

The Monetary Policy Board has raised the cash rate target four times in 2026, each by 25 basis points: on 3 February, 17 March, 5 May and 29 September. Together those moves took the cash rate from 3.60 per cent to 4.60 per cent, …

Sonal Goyal | 12 October 2026
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