With the cash rate at 4.60 per cent and the Governor refusing to give forward guidance, the next three weeks bring minutes, speeches and a fresh inflation reading before the Monetary Policy Board meets again.

Tuesday 3 November, 2.30 pm. That is when the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board will next announce its decision on the cash rate target, now 4.60 per cent after a 25 basis point rise on 29 September.

Between now and then sits a busy calendar. For borrowers wondering what the next decision could mean for their repayments, the coming weeks will not provide a definitive answer, but they will add pieces to the picture the Board itself will be weighing.

Where things stand

The September increase was the fourth of 2026. The Board lifted the cash rate from 3.60 per cent to 3.85 per cent on 3 February, to 4.10 per cent on 17 March and to 4.35 per cent on 5 May. It held at its August meeting before moving again in September, a combined rise of 1 percentage point this year.

The Board's 29 September statement said inflation remains elevated, recent outcomes have been stronger than expected and short-term inflation expectations are high. It judged that "a further tightening of financial conditions" was warranted, and said it will increase the cash rate further if needed while remaining attentive to the data.

Governor Michele Bullock was direct at her media conference: "The Board will increase interest rates again if that's what's needed to get inflation down." Asked about the path ahead, she said: "I'm not going to give you forward guidance."

That leaves 3 November open, and that is how the Board presents it.

The countdown

Here is what is scheduled before the next decision, according to the RBA's website:

  • Tuesday 13 October, 11.30 am AEDT: Minutes of the September Monetary Policy Board meeting.
  • Thursday 15 October, after 3.00 pm: RBA Annual Report 2026.
  • Sunday 18 October, 11.00 am: Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent scheduled for an interview.
  • Monday 19 October, 10.05 am: Kent fireside chat at the CBA Global Markets Conference.
  • Tuesday 20 October, 9.50 am: Ellis Connolly, Head of Payments Policy, fireside chat at the AFIA conference.
  • Wednesday 21 October, 9.30 am: Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser at the Citi ANZ Investment Conference.
  • Wednesday 28 October: Next CPI release.
  • Tuesday 3 November, 2.30 pm: Monetary Policy Board decision.

What to watch in each

The minutes. These record the Board's discussion behind the September rise. The August minutes offer a template for the kind of detail to expect. Then, members weighed two options: a 25 basis point rise or leaving the rate unchanged "for the time being". They chose to hold unanimously while "remaining alert to the upside risks to the inflation outlook". The September decision, also unanimous, followed when some of those risks began to materialise.

Kent's appearances. Kent's August remarks, delivered when the cash rate was 4.35 per cent, set out how tighter policy was working through housing and credit. He said "the three cash rate increases earlier this year are having their intended effects" and that "Scheduled mortgage payments have risen and are now close to their 2024 peak as a share of household disposable income."

Hauser. The Deputy Governor's Citi appearance falls a week before the CPI release and less than two weeks before the decision.

The CPI. This is the only CPI release on the calendar before 3 November. The latest figures show headline inflation of 4.0 per cent over the year to August, on the monthly CPI indicator. Underlying inflation is a separate measure: the trimmed mean was 3.6 per cent over the year to the June quarter, and Bullock described underlying inflation as "about 3.5 per cent". The target is 2–3 per cent, with a midpoint of 2.5 per cent.

Bullock gave a useful yardstick for reading quarterly results. To be consistent with the target, quarterly inflation needs to be "more around .6 rather than .8 and 1", she said.

The bigger picture the Board is weighing

Beyond the scheduled releases, the Board's September statement set out a mix of signals pulling in different directions.

On one side: inflation that "is too high and has been driven by domestic capacity pressures", in Bullock's words; businesses that, she said, "continue to expect strong increases in their costs over the year ahead"; higher global energy prices linked to a broader Middle East conflict; and strong business investment and debt growth.

On the other: output growth has slowed, consumer spending is easing gradually, housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6 per cent, though Bullock noted "there's been over a million jobs created."

There is also the question of lags. Bullock said "it can take 12, perhaps even 18 months" for rate changes to work through, and of the three earlier rises: "A lot of that effect is still to flow through."

One more caveat for anyone reading the RBA's forecasts. The August Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, including headline inflation returning to the 2–3 per cent range by early 2027, were prepared assuming a cash rate of roughly 4.3–4.5 per cent, before the September hike.

For context on market expectations, the August minutes noted that pricing at the time implied "around half a chance of a further 25 basis point increase by the end of 2026". That increase has since arrived; the minutes do not speak to expectations now.

On the household side, the RBA's October 2026 Financial Stability Review found the share of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers with a cash-flow shortfall "remains relatively low at around 2 per cent", and that "the median borrower [is] able to cover over a year of scheduled mortgage payments" from offset and redraw buffers. Arrears have risen slightly but remain "around pre-pandemic levels". Averages can hide hardship, and the review's media release acknowledged some pockets of stress.

The bottom line

Three weeks out, the 3 November decision remains open. The Board has said it will lift rates again if needed, the Governor has declined to give forward guidance, and the evidence includes both persistent inflation pressures and signs of a slowing economy.

Between now and then, the September minutes, Kent's and Hauser's appearances and, above all, the 28 October CPI release will shape the debate. None will settle the outcome in advance, but together they will show what the Board is seeing as it approaches its next call.