Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 fell to a three-month low on Monday as a mining sector sell-off and Middle East hostilities kept oil prices above US$100 a barrel. The index dropped 33.70 points (0.39%) to 8,583.40. Over five days, the benchmark is largely unchanged but is down 1.50% year-to-date. Despite the decline, 6 of 11 sectors closed higher, with Consumer Staples the top performer, rising 0.81% and gaining 0.31% over the past five days.

Macro Update: Oil prices climbed on Monday as investor attention returned to threats facing Middle East oil infrastructure, according to Reuters. Brent crude rose $1.27 (1.2%) to $104.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 54 cents (0.6%) to $99.25. Both benchmarks have surged over 40% this month after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns. Analysts also noted risks following U.S. strikes near Kharg Island, a key route for Iranian oil exports.

Top Market Movers: Among the top gainers, Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited (ASX:RWC) rose AUD 0.200 (6.85%) to AUD 3.120, while Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR) gained AUD 0.085 (4.62%) to AUD 1.925. AMP Limited (ASX:AMP) also advanced AUD 0.050 (4.27%) to AUD 1.220. On the downside, IperionX Limited (ASX:IPX) dropped AUD 1.170 (-22.24%) to AUD 4.090, Deep Yellow Limited (ASX:DYL) fell AUD 0.225 (-11.25%) to AUD 1.775, and Silex Systems Limited (ASX:SLX) declined AUD 0.590 (-10.14%) to AUD 5.230.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained near a 10-month high on Monday as global markets turned cautious ahead of several key central bank meetings this week. Policymakers from the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are scheduled to decide on interest rates amid rising geopolitical tensions linked to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, gold fell 1.10% to USD 5,006.60, silver dropped 2.27% to USD 79.49, copper eased 0.43%, while Brent crude rose 1.24% to USD 104.42.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 slipped to a three-month low, falling 0.39% to 8,583.40 as mining stocks dragged the market lower, although six sectors still closed higher with Consumer Staples leading gains. Meanwhile, oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude trading above US$104 amid supply concerns linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Market movers included gains in Reliance Worldwide, Karoon Energy and AMP, while IperionX, Deep Yellow and Silex Systems declined. With central bank meetings approaching and geopolitical risks rising, markets may continue to see volatility as investors assess inflation, energy prices and global policy signals.

In its latest trading session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index declined by 33.70 points, forming a bearish candlestick on elevated trading volumes. The increase in volume during the decline reflects growing investor caution and indicates short-term weakness in market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, which is acting as a significant near-term resistance level and limiting immediate upside potential. Unless the index manages to reclaim this technical barrier, upside momentum may remain subdued in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is located around the 8,480 level. Sustaining above this support zone will be crucial to stabilise market sentiment and prevent the possibility of a deeper corrective move in the coming sessions.