Index Update: The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ended Monday on a weaker note, falling 252.00 points or 2.85% to 8,599.00 and marking a new 50-day low, as global equity markets remained under pressure. Dow Jones falling 453.19 points (0.95%) to 47,501.55 and the Nasdaq Composite declining 361.31 points (1.59%) to 22,387.68. ASX index has declined 6.54% over the past five days and is now down 8.19% over the last 52 weeks, reflecting sustained selling momentum across the market.

Sector performance was broadly negative, with 10 of the 11 sectors finishing lower alongside the S&P/ASX 200. Energy emerged as the top-performing sector, gaining 1.65% on the day and 3.51% over the past five days, supported by rising crude prices amid supply concerns linked to a prolonged Iran conflict. In contrast, materials sector was the weakest sector, dropping 4.83% and leading the broader market decline.

Macro Update: Oil prices surged to multi-year highs on Monday as escalating Iran-US-Israel tensions raised fears of supply disruptions and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, signalling continued hardline control amid rising regional conflict. The oil rally boosted agricultural commodities, lifting palm oil, soybean oil, wheat, and corn prices due to higher energy costs. Gold declined as a stronger US dollar and inflation worries reduced demand, while aluminium surged on Middle East supply concerns, hitting multi-year highs.

Top Market Movers: Among the top gainers, Yancoal Australia Limited (ASX:YAL) rose AUD 0.840 to AUD 7.170, gaining 13.270%. Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR) climbed AUD 0.185 to AUD 2.000, up 10.192%, while Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) advanced AUD 0.370 to AUD 8.850, increasing 4.363%. On the downside, Dyno Nobel Limited (ASX:DNL) dropped 9.735% to AUD 3.060, DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) fell 8.846% to AUD 3.710, and Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB) declined 8.261% to AUD 2.110.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday, climbing to a three-month high against the euro as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude jumping 23.00% to USD 114.36 per barrel, raising concerns over global inflation and higher interest rates. Meanwhile, commodities declined, with gold falling 1.15% to USD 5,100.35, silver dropping 2.24% to USD 82.57, and copper easing 0.84% to USD 12,765.00.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 closed lower on Monday, dropping 2.85% to 8,599.00 and marking a fresh 50-day low, extending its five-day decline to 6.54% and year-on-year loss to 8.19%, reflecting persistent selling pressure. Sector performance was broadly negative, with 10 of the 11 sectors retreating, while energy emerged as the only bright spot, gaining 1.65% on the day and 3.51% over the past five sessions, supported by rising crude prices amid ongoing Iran-related geopolitical tensions. Commodity markets were volatile, with oil surging to multi-year highs on supply concerns, boosting agricultural commodities, while gold declined amid a stronger US dollar and inflation worries. Overall, the market continues to exhibit heightened volatility, with selective sector strength in energy contrasting against broad weakness across the index.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 252.00 points in the latest session, forming a bearish candlestick on rising volume, which reflects growing investor caution and sustained short-term weakness. The index remains below its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, reinforcing the prevailing negative near-term structure. Immediate support is positioned around 8,400, and a failure to hold this level could trigger further downside pressure. On the weekly timeframe, the index also trades below its 21-period SMA, maintaining a negative medium- to long-term outlook and suggesting that selling pressure may persist in the near term.