Source: Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The Australian share market slipped on Tuesday, with the S&P/ASX 200 falling 14.00 points, or 0.16%, to close at 8,848.80. Over the past five sessions, the index has remained largely flat, though it sits 2.27% below its 52-week high. The market decline was led by a sell-off in the energy sector, as weaker oil prices outweighed gains in gold miners, while most other sectors also finished lower. Materials was the standout performer, rising 0.89% on the day and 3.54% over the past week. Furthermore, investors were cautious after a subdued Wall Street session amid fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold did little to spur optimism.

Macro Update: The Australian dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained interest rates at their current level. The central bank noted that recent data pointed to inflation potentially running higher than anticipated in the third quarter, while the broader economic outlook remained uncertain.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on the looming U.S. government shutdown, with federal funding set to expire at midnight on Tuesday unless Republicans and Democrats reach a temporary spending agreement. In the event of a partial shutdown, the U.S. Labor and Commerce departments have warned that key economic data releases, including the closely watched September employment figures, would be put on hold.

Top Market Movers: IDP Education Ltd (ASX:IEL) topped the gains on Tuesday, surging 16.08% to close at AUD 6.57. Droneshield Limited (ASX:DRO) followed with a 5.91% rise to AUD 4.66, while Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX:PLS) advanced 4.13% to AUD 2.52. On the downside, IperionX Ltd (ASX:IPX) led the losses, falling 5.28% to AUD 7.54. Beach Energy Ltd (ASX:BPT) slipped 3.38% to AUD 1.15, and Telix Pharma Ltd (ASX:TLX) declined 3.25% to AUD 14.57.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday as investors grew cautious ahead of a possible government shutdown that could delay key economic data, including the jobs report. Gold rose 0.51% to USD 3,874.90, silver edged up 0.17% to USD 47.09, while copper slipped 0.72% to USD 10,367.70. Brent crude fell 0.50% to USD 67.65 on OPEC+ production hike concerns, while easing Gaza tensions reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

Our Stance: The market remained largely rangebound, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid mixed domestic and global signals. A pullback in energy stocks weighed on the broader index, while materials provided relative support. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold rates steady did little to shift market direction, with inflation risks and global uncertainties remaining in focus. The Australian dollar gained modestly, supported by hawkish undertones from the RBA. Meanwhile, concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown continue to cloud sentiment, particularly with the risk of delayed economic data. In this context, selective sector strength is emerging amid an otherwise cautious backdrop.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 14.00 points in its latest session, forming a bearish candlestick alongside rising trading volume a signal of short-term caution and a prevailing bearish bias. Despite this, the index remains above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which now provides immediate support. On the daily chart, a key support level sits around 8,760.70; holding above this threshold could help consolidate recent gains and restore confidence in the broader uptrend. On the weekly chart, the index continues to trade above its 21-period SMA, a constructive sign suggesting the potential for sustained momentum over the longer term.