Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 closed Monday in negative territory, falling 62.50 points or 0.74% to 8,365.90 and marking a new 100-day low. The index has now declined 2.53% over the past five sessions and is down 4.00% year to date, as investor sentiment weakened in line with losses on Wall Street. On Friday, the S&P 500 Index dropped 1.5% while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2%, with growing concerns that escalating tensions involving Iran could spread further across the Middle East weighing on global markets.

Sector performance was mixed, with six of the 11 sectors closing lower. Materials (-2.40%) led the declines, followed by A-REITs (-1.22%), information technology (-0.92%), industrials (-0.80%), financials (-0.58%), and consumer staples (-0.04%). On the upside, utilities emerged as the top-performing sector, rising 1.46% and gaining 3.93% over the past five days. Energy (+1.24%), consumer discretionary (+1.10%), health care (+0.16%), and telecommunications services (+0.13%) also finished higher.

Macro Update: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its fourth week, with tensions escalating sharply. Over the weekend, Donald Trump warned that the US would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil artery. Iran has vowed retaliation, threatening to strike key regional infrastructure. Since late February, Iran has effectively blocked the strait—through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG typically flows—triggering a surge in global energy prices. The disruption has hit import-dependent economies such as Japan and South Korea particularly hard, while Fatih Birol warned the standoff could lead to the most severe energy crisis in decades.

Top Market Movers: Among the top gainers, Eagers Automotive Limited (ASX:APE) climbed to AUD 21.420, up AUD 1.230 (+6.092%), followed by Premier Investments Limited (ASX:PMV), which rose AUD 0.680 (+5.676%) to AUD 12.660, and AUB Group Limited (ASX:AUB), gaining AUD 1.220 (+5.403%) to AUD 23.800. On the downside, Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX:CYL) fell to AUD 5.630, down AUD 0.950 (-14.438%), while Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX:OBM) dropped AUD 0.130 (-11.017%) to AUD 1.050, and Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP) declined AUD 0.990 (-9.793%) to AUD 9.120.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar showed signs of a rebound on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened risk appetite, supporting safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, commodities witnessed broad weakness, with gold dropping 4.79% to USD 4,389.40 and silver declining 6.56% to USD 65.10. Copper slipped 0.58%, while Brent crude remained nearly flat near USD 112.18 amid mixed signals around supply risks and easing sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 slipped to a fresh 100-day low, extending recent losses as global risk sentiment weakened in tandem with declines on Wall Street and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Broad-based weakness across cyclical sectors—led by materials, A-REITs, and technology—outweighed gains in defensives such as utilities and energy. Investor caution has intensified as the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling energy market uncertainty and raising fears of supply shocks. At the same time, softer commodity prices and a firmer US dollar point to a shift toward risk-off positioning. Looking ahead, market direction is likely to remain volatile, with sentiment hinging on geopolitical developments, energy price dynamics, and global growth concerns, as highlighted by warnings from Fatih Birol about a potential energy crisis.