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Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.49% on Friday, closing at 8,666.90, and logging a 1.03% loss over the past five sessions. The index remains 1.25% below its 52-week high. Sector performance was mixed, with 7 of 11 sectors closing lower. Materials led the losses, plunging 1.73%, followed by Financials (-0.45%) and Health Care (-0.44%). On the upside, Energy gained 1.80%, while Information Technology and Utilities posted modest gains of 0.25 and 0.06% respectively, providing limited support to the broader market.

Macro Update: U.S. jobless claims fell to a three-month low last week, signaling a stable labor market despite slower hiring. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are building, with an S&P Global survey showing businesses raised prices in July. The rise in U.S. business activity and higher pricing supports economists’ expectations of accelerating inflation in the second half, largely driven by tariffs imposed under President Trump’s trade policy.

Top Market Movers: On Friday, Infratil Limited (ASX:IFT) topped the gainers, rising 3.83% to AUD 10.57. Newmont Corporation (ASX:NEM) gained 3.81% to close at AUD 95.38, followed by Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX:WDS), up 3.72% to AUD 26.20. Among the biggest decliners, Champion Iron Limited (ASX:CIA) slid 4.94% to AUD 5.00, AMP Limited (ASX:AMP) fell 4.79%, and Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:CU6) dropped 4.64%.

Commodity Update: The dollar held near two-week lows Friday, heading for its largest weekly drop in a month amid U.S. tariff talks and upcoming central bank meetings. Gold dipped 0.23% to USD 3,365.90, while silver rose 0.61% to USD 39.46. Copper was nearly flat, up 0.01% at USD 9,877.10. Brent crude climbed 0.30% to USD 69.35, supported by hopes of a U.S.-EU trade deal and Russian gasoline export curbs.

Our Stance: The ASX 200 closed the week lower, dragged down by declines in the materials and financials sectors, despite solid gains in energy. Investor sentiment remains cautious, though stabilising U.S. jobless claims and stronger business activity point to underlying economic resilience. That said, rising inflationary pressures and ongoing trade policy uncertainty could add to market volatility. Domestically, equities may trade in a narrow range as investors await key macroeconomic data and earnings updates. Commodity markets remain mixed, with oil prices supported while gold edges lower. Looking ahead, a neutral-to-cautious stance appears warranted, with attention on inflation trends, central bank signals, and potential sector rotation.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index faced a challenging session, closing down 42.50 points while forming a bearish candlestick pattern on elevated trading volume. Despite this near-term pullback, the index remains above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart a key technical support level closely monitored by market participants. A crucial support zone is identified near the 8,600 mark. Holding above this area would help consolidate recent gains and reinforce confidence in the index’s upward trajectory. Further underpinning the bullish structure, the index also sits above its 21-period SMA on the weekly chart, signalling potential for sustained upward momentum in the broader timeframe. The alignment of these technical signals across both daily and weekly charts highlights the index’s underlying resilience and supports a broadly positive outlook despite bouts of near-term volatility.