Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 ended Friday in the red, shedding 69.40 points or 0.82% to finish at 8,428.40, its lowest level in 50 days. The decline extended the market’s losing streak to a third straight week, as higher energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict led investors to reassess interest rate expectations.

Sector performance was mixed, with seven of the 11 sectors ending in negative territory. Materials (-1.61%), industrials (-1.02%), financials (-1.09%), and consumer discretionary (-0.84%) led the declines. A-REITs (-0.67%), consumer staples (-0.25%), and information technology (-0.08%) also closed lower. On the upside, health care emerged as the top-performing sector, gaining 1.20% and rebounding from recent weakness, although it remains down 2.25% over the past five days. Utilities (+0.72%), energy (+0.71%), and telecommunications services (+0.24%) also recorded gains.

Macro Update: The World Trade Organization warned that the Middle East conflict could further weaken the global trade outlook, particularly if elevated energy prices persist. After strong growth in 2025 driven by AI-related demand, global merchandise trade is projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6%, before recovering to 2.6% in 2027. Services trade growth is expected to ease to 4.8% in 2026, while overall trade growth moderates to 2.7%. Global GDP is forecast to edge down slightly to 2.8% in both 2026 and 2027.

Top Market Movers: Among the top gainers, Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX:CYL) rose to AUD6.580, up AUD0.510 (+8.402%), followed by Chorus Limited (ASX:CNU) at AUD8.150, gaining AUD0.370 (+4.755%), and Sigma Healthcare Limited (ASX:SIG), which added AUD0.120 (+4.511%) to AUD2.780. On the downside, Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX:OBM) fell to AUD1.180, down AUD0.100 (-7.813%), Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP) dropped AUD0.790 (-7.248%) to AUD10.110, while Alcoa Corporation (ASX:AAI) declined AUD6.420 (-7.178%) to AUD83.030.

Commodity Update: The dollar retreated from multi-month highs as rising energy prices reshaped global rate expectations, leaving the U.S. Federal Reserve as the only major central bank unlikely to hike rates this year. Earlier expectations of two rate cuts have faded. Gold jumped 2.45% to USD 4,719.10, silver rose 4.18% to USD 74.13, and copper gained 0.86% to USD 12,297.70, while Brent crude declined 2.00% to USD 116.48.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 closed at a 50-day low, extending its weekly decline as rising energy prices and shifting rate expectations weighed on sentiment. Weakness across key sectors offset gains in defensives like healthcare and utilities. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization signalled a slower global trade outlook, adding to macro uncertainty. Commodity strength, particularly in gold and silver, reflects risk-off positioning. Near-term, markets may remain volatile, with direction hinging on geopolitical developments, energy price trends, and central bank signals shaping inflation and growth expectations.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 declined by 69.40 points, forming a bearish candlestick on elevated trading volume. The increase in volume during the sell-off reflects rising investor caution and signals short-term weakness in overall market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, which is acting as a key resistance level and capping upside attempts. Unless the index reclaims this barrier, bullish momentum is likely to remain constrained. On the downside, immediate support is seen near the 8,320 level, which will be crucial to hold in order to stabilise sentiment and limit the risk of a deeper correction.