index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 extended its losing streak to a third straight session on Tuesday, falling 31.10 points or 0.36% to close at 8,670.70, marking a fresh 20-day low. Despite the recent weakness, the benchmark index remains broadly flat over both the past five trading sessions and on a year-to-date basis. Market Breadth was weak, with nine of the 11 sectors finishing lower. Materials emerged as the strongest-performing sector, rising 2.43% on the day and 8.12% over the past five sessions. Australian equities were pressured by weakness in major bank stocks ahead of the federal budget announcement.

Macro Update: Morgan Stanley has warned that global oil markets are entering a “race against time” as key Supply buffers could be exhausted if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond June. The bank said reduced Chinese crude imports and higher U.S. exports have so far softened the supply shock, but prolonged disruption could force Brent Crude sharply higher. Morgan Stanley maintained its base-case forecasts but warned prices could surge to US$150 a barrel under an extended closure scenario. Goldman Sachs recently also flagged rapidly declining global oil inventories.

Top Market Movers: Generation Development Group (ASX:GDG) led the gains, rising 9.39% to AUD 3.96, followed by Emerald Resources (ASX:EMR), which climbed 6.23% to AUD 6.14, and Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD), up 6.19% to AUD 6.52. On the losing side, Life360 (ASX:360) dropped 10.89% to AUD 17.92, DroneShield (ASX:DRO) declined 9.92% to AUD 3.18, while SiteMinder (ASX:SDR) fell 6.03% to AUD 2.96.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Monday as investors moved toward safe-haven Assets after renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran. Market Participants also remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. Inflation data, which could reflect the impact of elevated Crude Oil prices. Gold gained 0.19% to USD 4,737.70 per ounce, silver advanced 0.86% to USD 86.70, and copper rose 0.12% to USD 13,915.00. Brent crude climbed 0.30% to USD 104.52 per barrel after surging nearly 3% in the previous session.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 slipped for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, closing 0.36% lower at 8,670.70 as weakness in major bank stocks offset gains in Mining shares. Materials outperformed, supported by rising commodity prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Morgan Stanley warned that prolonged disruption to global oil flows could sharply tighten supply conditions and potentially drive Brent crude significantly higher. Gold and silver also advanced as investors shifted toward defensive assets ahead of key U.S. inflation data. While broader market sentiment remains cautious, continued strength in commodities is helping provide selective support across resource-focused sectors.

The S&P/ASX 200 declined by 31.10 points in the latest session, forming a bearish candlestick pattern that reflects renewed selling pressure and cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as a key dynamic resistance level and limiting near-term upside momentum. Despite the recent weakness, the index is showing early signs of stabilisation around current levels, suggesting that buyers are attempting to defend important support zones. Immediate support is positioned near 8,600, and holding above this level could help contain further downside pressure while preserving the broader short-term upward trend. However, a decisive break below this support may weaken the prevailing technical structure and increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase, potentially dragging the index toward the 8,500 level while heightening near-term Volatility.