Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 finished almost unchanged on Monday, edging up 1.90 points to close at 8,636.40. The broader market remained under pressure, with the benchmark down 2.26% over the past five sessions, though it has still advanced 5.85% year-to-date. Market performance was mixed, with seven of 11 sectors ending higher. Information Technology led gains, rising 1.23% as it attempted to stabilise after a sharp five-day decline of more than 10%. Energy and A-REITs also posted gains, while Health Care and Financials dragged. Market participants remained cautious ahead of a condensed wave of U.S. economic data, delayed due to the government shutdown, which could offer new indications on the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates.

Macro Update: U.S. agencies on Friday outlined schedules to release the economic data delayed during the government shutdown, offering markets a clearer timeline for key indicators. At the same time, three Federal Reserve officials repeated concerns about inflation pressures, while the Fed’s most dovish policymaker argued that the latest available data supported another rate cut. Traders quickly adjusted their expectations, with short-term interest-rate futures by late Friday signaling a 60% probability that the central bank will pause after back-to-back cuts in September and October instead of reducing rates again in December.

Top Market Movers: DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) topped the gainers on Monday, rising AUD 0.27 or 11.59% to AUD 2.60. Elders Limited (ASX:ELD) advanced AUD 0.44 or 6.31% to close at AUD 7.41, while Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) gained AUD 0.37 or 5.69% to AUD 6.87. Among decliners, Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) fell AUD 0.22 or 3.12%, IperionX (ASX:IPX) slipped 3.03%, and Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) eased 2.58%.

Commodity Update: The dollar edged higher on Monday as traders awaited a wave of U.S. economic data after the government shutdown ended, seeking clearer cues on the Fed’s December rate outlook. Gold dipped 0.40% to USD 4,078.40, while silver inched up 0.08% to USD 50.72, and copper was nearly flat at USD 10,837.40. Brent crude slipped 0.90% to USD 63.81 as exports resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk port.

Our Stance: Monday’s trade delivered a muted session for the ASX, shaped by mixed sector moves and uncertainty around upcoming U.S. economic releases. The flat finish underscores a market still adjusting to shifting expectations on the Fed’s December decision. Gains in IT, Energy and A-REITs contrasted with softness in Health Care and Financials, signalling selective positioning rather than broad momentum. With futures now leaning toward a Fed pause, short-term swings are likely as traders absorb the backlog of U.S. data and reassess the outlook.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index inched higher by 1.90 points to close at 8,636.40, supported by a bullish candlestick pattern and strong trading volumes—clear indicators of sustained investor confidence. On the daily chart, the index continues to trade below its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently acts as dynamic resistance. A key support zone is located near 8,570.60, and maintaining levels above this threshold is essential for preserving the prevailing bullish structure. Holding this support would help the index consolidate recent gains while reinforcing confidence in the broader upward trajectory. From a weekly perspective, the index remains above its 50-period SMA, underscoring a constructive longer-term outlook. This setup suggests the potential for continued upward momentum, provided near-term support levels remain intact.