Index Update: Australian equities edged higher on Thursday, extending momentum from the previous session’s rally, as investors navigated ongoing uncertainty around the Middle East ceasefire. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 21.40 points or 0.24% to close at 8,973.20, marking a fresh 20-day high and building on Wednesday’s 2.6% surge.

Despite the index finishing in positive territory, underlying market breadth remained mixed. Information Technology emerged as the standout drag, falling sharply by -6.39% and weighing heavily on overall sentiment. Losses were also seen across Health Care (-1.11%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.75%), and Materials (-0.46%), indicating uneven participation in the rally.

On the upside, Energy led sectoral gains with a +2.41% rise, rebounding after recent weakness even as it remains down -3.56% over the past five sessions.

Macro Update: Global economic outlook concerns are intensifying, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warning that the ongoing Iran conflict is reshaping growth and inflation trajectories. Speaking on Monday, she noted that “all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” as the institution prepares to revise its forecasts.

Prior to the escalation, the International Monetary Fund had expected a modest improvement in global growth, projecting 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. However, the conflict has disrupted those expectations, with energy supply shocks emerging as a central concern.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted global oil flows, halting marine traffic across a critical corridor. The IMF indicated that the economic fallout is likely to be uneven, with lower-income countries facing greater pressure from rising costs and constrained growth, even if the conflict eases in the near term.

Top Market Movers: On Thursday, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX:BEN) led the gains, rising to AUD 11.340, up AUD 0.880 or 8.413%, followed by ASX Limited (ASX:ASX), which climbed to AUD 57.450, gaining AUD 3.570 or 6.625%. Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR) also advanced, adding AUD 0.080 or 4.221% to close at AUD 1.975. On the downside, Orora Limited (ASX:ORA) declined sharply to AUD 1.620, down AUD 0.355 or 17.975%. WiseTech Global Limited (ASX:WTC) fell to AUD 38.620, losing AUD 4.730 or 10.912%, while Zip Co Limited (ASX:ZIP) dropped to AUD 1.790, down AUD 0.205 or 10.276%.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Thursday following broad weakness, as investors closely monitored whether the fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran would continue. Precious metals moved lower, with gold declining 0.79% to USD 4,740.10 and silver falling 1.98% to USD 73.91. Copper also slipped 0.47% to USD 12,634.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil climbed 2.57% to USD 97.10 amid continuing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and renewed Middle East tensions.

Our Stance: Australian equities extended their gains, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing 0.24% higher at 8,973.20, marking a 20-day high and building on the prior session’s rally. However, the advance masked uneven sector performance, as a sharp -6.39% decline in Information Technology weighed on sentiment, while Energy (+2.41%) provided key support amid rising oil prices. Broader macro signals remain cautious, with the International Monetary Fund warning of higher inflation and slower global growth due to ongoing Middle East tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Mixed commodity trends and divergent stock move further reflect underlying uncertainty. While index momentum persists, the combination of geopolitical risks and narrow sector participation suggests the current uptrend may face near-term volatility.

The S&P/ASX 200 rose by 21.40 points in the latest session, forming a bullish candlestick that reflects renewed buying interest and improving short-term momentum. Despite this positive move, the broader technical outlook remains cautiously constructive, indicating that a confirmed uptrend is still developing. The index continues to trade above its 21-period SMA on the daily chart, which is acting as a key dynamic support and reinforcing underlying strength in the price structure. Holding above this level supports near-term stability. However, immediate support is placed around 8,830, and a sustained break below this zone could weaken sentiment and trigger a deeper corrective phase in the sessions ahead.