Index Update: The S&P/ASX 200 closed 24.00 points, or 0.28%, higher at 8,696.50 on Wednesday, after touching a new 50-day low during intraday trade. The index remains down 2.41% over the past five days and is virtually unchanged year to date. Six of 11 sectors finished higher, with Energy leading gains, advancing 2.19% as the sector rebounded from its recent decline. Australian shares edged higher as oil prices paused near US$108 a barrel and bond yields eased ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

Macro update: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the Iran war has triggered a significant global economic shock, disrupting energy supplies and pushing prices higher. She said the conflict could further affect economic activity if disruptions continue. Georgieva noted that the IMF is closely monitoring developments and their impact on global growth, Inflation and financial stability. The warning comes as heightened geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty across energy markets and raise concerns over broader economic repercussions.

Top Market Movers: Among the top gainers, Pantoro Gold Limited (ASX:PNR) rose 9.302% to AUD 2.820, followed by Codan Limited (ASX:CDA), which climbed 7.513% to AUD 48.940. Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) advanced 4.918% to AUD 1.920. Among the top decliners, Life360 Inc. (ASX:360) fell 5.459% to AUD 19.400, 4DMedical Limited (ASX:4DX) declined 5.348% to AUD 3.540, while James Hardie Industries plc (ASX:JHX) dropped 5.234% to AUD 37.300.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar climbed to a two-week high ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest Interest Rate decision, while Treasury yields increased borrowing costs. Gold rose 0.83% to USD 4,368.70, silver gained 2.12% to USD 65.18, and copper advanced 0.40% to USD 14,149.20. Brent Crude fell 0.50% to USD 108.22 as an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories outweighed Middle East Supply disruptions. Crude also faced profit-taking after its recent sharp gains amid heightened regional tensions and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty.

Our Stance: The S&P/ASX 200 edged higher on Wednesday, gaining 0.28% to 8,696.50, although its 2.41% five-day decline highlights continued near-term volatility. With seven of 11 sectors advancing, Energy led gains as oil prices paused near US$108. Meanwhile, the IMF’s warning over the Iran war adds to uncertainty around energy supplies, inflation and global growth. Gold, silver and copper also advanced, while Brent crude eased amid rising US inventories. Against this backdrop, easing bond yields may offer some support, but geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision remain key factors shaping market sentiment and near-term direction.

On the technical front, the S&P/ASX 200 Index gained in the latest trading session, maintaining its overall positive momentum. Despite the recent pullback, the index continues to hold above key support near 8,630.50, which remains crucial for sustaining the prevailing bullish bias. A sustained hold above this level could support a recovery towards recent highs, while a decisive break below 8,600 would weaken the technical structure and increase downside risk. On the upside, a decisive breakout above the recent swing high near 8,740.50 could reinforce bullish momentum and potentially pave the way for further gains towards the next target near 8,800.