Key Highlights:

  • Baby Bunting lifted FY26 pro forma profit 33.9% and guided to more growth, but its shares were around $1.08 on 23 September, well below where they started 2026.
  • Kelly Partners grew FY26 Revenue 18% yet saw its share price fall by roughly two-thirds over the financial year, and is now proposing a listing and ASX delisting.
  • Both are far smaller and more stock-specific than the S&P/ASX 200, which closed at 8,702 on 24 September amid oil-price and rate worries.
  • Upcoming company updates and execution against stated plans remain central to the next phase for both stocks.

Baby Bunting and Kelly Partners are outside the S&P/ASX 200, and both have trailed that benchmark badly over the past year. What sets them apart is how exposed each is to its own story: Baby Bunting is a retailer being pushed around by rising interest rates, while Kelly Partners is an acquisitive accounting group that now wants to leave the ASX altogether.

A nervous market and a hawkish RBA

The broader market has had a difficult few weeks. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.72% lower at 8,702 points on 24 September, as Brent Crude pushed above US$100 a barrel and Wall Street sold off. show the index down a little over 5% across the past month.

Interest rates are the other big overhang. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate three times in the first half of 2026 before pausing at 4.35% in August, and all four major banks now expect another 25 basis point rise at the 29 September meeting, . For a consumer-facing retailer this backdrop matters a great deal; for a professional services firm with debt-funded acquisitions, it matters in a different way.

Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN): record margins, weaker share price

Baby Bunting is Australia's largest specialty retailer of baby goods, with stores in Australia and New Zealand and a growing online channel. Its FY26 result, released on 14 August, showed record sales of $556 million, up 6.5%, and comparable store sales growth of 3.5% . Gross Margin rose 100 basis points to a record 41.2%, helped by private and exclusive brands, which now account for more than half of sales. Pro forma net profit after tax rose 33.9% to $16.1 million.

Management guided to FY27 pro forma NPAT of $19 million to $21 million on sales of $585 million to $600 million, with comparable sales growth of 3% to 5%. Trading in the first six weeks of FY27 was encouraging, with total sales up 6.1%. The shares jumped more than 20% on the day.

That rally did not last. In June, Baby Bunting had cut its FY26 profit guidance, with chief executive Mark Teperson pointing to three RBA cash rate rises and higher fuel prices weighing on spending and distribution costs . On 20 August, DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt rated the stock a sell in a broker roundup, citing rate rises, fuel costs and intense competition.

The shares were quoted at $1.08 on 23 September, giving a Market Value of about $153 million. That is roughly 17% below the $1.30 they traded at on 20 August. No company-specific announcement appears to explain the latest slide, so it appears tied to sector and market flows as the prospect of another rate hike grows.

Kelly Partners (ASX:KPG): growth, a de-rating and a plan

Kelly Partners is an accounting and advisory group for private businesses. It uses a "partner-owner-driver" model in which it typically buys a majority stake in a firm while local partners keep a significant minority. It now has 43 offices across six countries, with the US contributing around 15% of revenue .

FY26 results, released on 12 August, showed revenue up 18.2% to $159.2 million and underlying parent NPATA up 18.9% to $10.8 million, and net Debt rose to $70.7 million, or 1.52 times EBITDA. Growth was mainly acquisition-led.

The share price tells a very different story. The company itself noted that the stock fell from $10.77 to $3.79 during FY26 . Management described this as "short-term market sentiment rather than a reflection of underlying performance". The shares were at $4.71 on 16 September, a market value of about $212 million.

The latest twist came on 21 September. Kelly Partners proposed a compliance listing on Nasdaq, with no Capital raising, together with removal from the ASX, a one-for-three share consolidation and new unlisted "loyalty" Class B shares carrying extra voting rights for long-term holders . The company says US markets offer better valuation comparisons, research coverage and access to debt for acquisitions.

Why the index comparison matters for both

The clearest thing that sets both companies apart from the S&P/ASX 200 is concentration. The index spreads risk across 200 companies; each of these businesses depends on one engine. For Baby Bunting it is household spending on baby products, which is squeezed by rate rises and fuel costs. For Kelly Partners it is the ability to keep buying accounting firms at sensible prices and fund them with debt.

Both have also seen their share prices separate from earnings. Each reported double-digit profit growth in August, yet each has lagged the benchmark over the year. For Baby Bunting, the June downgrade appears to have dented confidence in guidance. Kelly Partners is now proposing to leave the Australian market altogether.

What investors could watch next

For Baby Bunting, the RBA decision on 29 September is the near-term swing factor, followed by the Annual General Meeting in mid-October, where retailers often give a trading update. Investors could compare any update with the FY27 guidance of 3% to 5% comparable sales growth and a 42% gross margin.

For Kelly Partners, the key date is the extraordinary general meeting on 23 October 2026, where all four linked resolutions must pass. If approved, ASX delisting would come no earlier than one month after both Shareholder and approval, giving holders a window to sell on the ASX.

The bottom line

Baby Bunting and Kelly Partners both delivered Earnings growth in FY26 but have lagged the S&P/ASX 200 over the past year. Baby Bunting's shares are tied to the rate cycle and consumer confidence, while Kelly Partners' future is bound up in a vote that could take it off the ASX.