Key Highlights

• On 30 October 2026, Helia Group (ASX:HLI) released its 3Q26 trading update.

• Gross Written Premium (GWP) for the nine months was reported as $82.5 million, against $176 million a year earlier.

• Statutory net profit after tax for the nine months was reported at $136.5 million, compared with $200.9 million previously.

• The Capital coverage ratio against the prescribed capital amount (PCA) was reported at 2.01 times.

What does Helia Group (ASX:HLI)'s latest trading update say about a lenders Mortgage insurer whose new Business has shrunk sharply? In short, the 30 October 2026 update showed premiums written falling well below last year's pace while the Balance Sheet stayed encouraging, which is why the company's capital returns and the shape of its future Earnings matter to the story.

The central development: a third-quarter update

On 30 October 2026, Helia Group (ASX:HLI) released its 3Q26 trading update. Gross written premium (GWP) for the nine months was reported as $82.5 million, against $176 million a year earlier.

Statutory net profit after tax for the nine months was reported at $136.5 million, compared with $200.9 million previously. The capital coverage ratio against the prescribed capital amount (PCA) was reported at 2.01 times.

It matters because premiums written today become earned Revenue over several years, so less new business points to lower later revenue, even if claims stay benign.

What Helia does and how it earns

Helia provides lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) in Australia. When a borrower has a small deposit, the lender can require LMI, which protects the lender, not the borrower, against a loss if the Loan defaults and the property sells for less than the debt.

Revenue is mainly premium, recognised over time as the insured loans age, plus Investment income on a portfolio of cash and investments that stood at $2.18 billion at 30 June 2026. Profit depends on how much new business is written, how many loans become delinquent and turn into claims, and how efficiently costs are managed.

First-half results

For the half-year to 30 June 2026, Helia reported net profit after tax of $100.0 million, compared with $133.7 million in the first half of 2025. Basic Earnings Per Share from continuing operations were 36.5 cents, against 49.1 cents.

Management said new business GWP was $61.6 million, down 44% on the first half of 2025, mainly because Commonwealth Bank new business ceased from 31 January 2026 and first-home buyer volumes were softer. Claims were low: total incurred claims were a net benefit of $14 million, though a smaller benefit than a year earlier. The delinquency rate was 0.79%, and new delinquencies fell 24%. The expense ratio was 28%.

Capital returns and leadership

Alongside the result, the board declared a 16 cent fully franked Interim Dividend and a 27 cent unfranked special dividend. It also extended the on-market buy-back to a maximum of $75 million. The PCA coverage ratio was 2.07 times at 30 June, above the company's 1.4 to 1.6 times target range, and management put the pro forma figure after the dividends and buy-back at 1.79 times.

The ASX announcement feed shows frequent buy-back notices through September and October 2026. An Appendix 3X was lodged on 19 October 2026 for Mark Senkevics, reported to have succeeded interim chief executive Michael Cant as chief executive that day.

Sector conditions and competitive position

The half-year call described an LMI market under pressure. Management said new LMI premiums across the market contracted 14% in the first quarter of 2026, and that major banks continued to self-insure or waive LMI at high levels. Much first-home buyer Demand has also moved to the government's 5% deposit scheme.

Contracts with Amp Bank and ING Bank were renewed; ING represented 22% of GWP in the half, and a new four-year agreement began on 1 July 2026.

The macroeconomic backdrop was described as more difficult. Management cited the Reserve Bank lifting the cash rate to 4.35%, Unemployment rising to 4.4%, and softer prices in Sydney and Melbourne. Higher rates and weaker housing markets can raise delinquencies, although management said claims should remain well below the through-cycle average this year.

Guidance

Management narrowed 2026 insurance revenue guidance to $330 million to $360 million, from $320 million to $370 million. It also said recurring cost savings of $12 million a year were on track. Directors did not disclose likely future developments in the half-year report, citing potential competitive impact. Guidance is an expectation, not a result, and conditions could change it.

Index membership

A market data page showed a size ranking of 275 among ASX-listed companies, which would be consistent with it sitting outside the index, but that is not confirmation either way.

Key risks and what to watch

• Shrinking premium base. GWP is well below the 2025 pace, and revenue beyond 2026 depends on whether new business stabilises.

• Claims normalisation. The 2021 to 2023 loan vintages carry the highest delinquency rates. Rising unemployment or falling property prices could lift claims from today's low levels.

• Customer concentration. The loss of Commonwealth Bank Volume shows how dependent LMI volumes can be on a few lenders, and ING alone was 22% of first-half GWP.

• Policy and bank behaviour. Self-insurance by major banks, government deposit schemes and tax changes can all change demand for LMI.

• Capital management. Dividends paid in the first half exceeded statutory profit. Surplus capital returns are not guaranteed.

• Leadership transition. A new chief executive brings execution risk.