Key Highlights

• Origin reported its full-year results for the year to 30 June 2026 on 13 August 2026.

• - Underlying Profit was $1,159 million, down $331 million on the prior year.

• - Statutory profit was $1,574 million, up 6 per cent, helped by a $484 million gain tied to the Kraken demerger and a $147 million gain from waiving platform exclusivity rights.

• - Group underlying EBITDA was $3,220 million, down 6 per cent.

Why is Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) back in focus after its September-quarter update? Because the 29 October 2026 report showed its two engines pulling in different directions: higher oil-linked LNG Revenue from its Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) stake, and a retail and generation Business adjusting to batteries, data-centre Demand and milder weather.

That split matters more than any single quarter. It shows how much of Origin's Earnings depends on Commodity prices it cannot control, and how much on the energy transition it is trying to manage.

What Origin does and where earnings come from

Origin is an Australian integrated energy company. Its Energy Markets division sells electricity and gas to households and businesses, and owns generation including the Eraring coal-fired power station in New South Wales and a growing portfolio of grid-scale batteries.

Its Integrated Gas division holds a share of APLNG, the Queensland coal seam gas and LNG joint venture. APLNG sells gas under long-term LNG contracts, many linked to oil prices, as well as into the domestic market. A third segment covers Origin's Investment in Octopus Energy, the UK-based retailer, and the Kraken software platform, a small earnings contributor so far.

The FY26 result in brief

Origin reported its full-year results for the year to 30 June 2026 on 13 August 2026. They are in Australian dollars unless stated.

• Underlying profit was $1,159 million, down $331 million on the prior year.

• Statutory profit was $1,574 million, up 6 per cent, helped by a $484 million gain tied to the Kraken demerger and a $147 million gain from waiving platform exclusivity rights.

• Group underlying EBITDA was $3,220 million, down 6 per cent.

• Energy Markets EBITDA was $1,701 million, up 21 per cent.

• Integrated Gas EBITDA was $1,620 million, down 19 per cent, with Origin's share of APLNG EBITDA at $1,478 million, down $397 million.

• Octopus and Kraken combined recorded EBITDA of minus $8 million, against minus $88 million a year earlier.

• Adjusted free Cash Flow was $2,074 million, up $867 million.

• The Dividend was 60 cents per share, fully franked, unchanged and equal to 50 per cent of adjusted free cash flow.

The pattern is clear. Retail and generation earnings rose while the gas contribution fell, which pulled underlying profit lower even as cash generation improved.

What the September quarter showed

The Quarterly Report for the three months to 30 September 2026 w. Its main points were as follows.

APLNG production was 162.8 petajoules, slightly below 164.6 petajoules in the June quarter. The realised LNG price was US$13.27 per million British thermal units, while the average domestic gas price was $5.67 per gigajoule.

In Energy Markets, electricity sales volumes rose 3 per cent year on year, driven by retail and business growth including higher data-centre demand. Gas sales volumes fell 7 per cent, mainly because milder weather and more renewables and batteries reduced gas-fired generation.

Origin's grid-scale battery capacity now stands at 1.3 gigawatts and 4.1 gigawatt hours, within a planned program of 1.8 gigawatts and 6.4 gigawatt hours. The 300 megawatt Mortlake Battery reached commercial operations, and Eraring Battery 2 is reported to be on track for the March quarter of 2027.

Octopus's retail arm added 308,000 customer accounts in the quarter, 257,000 of them in the UK. Kraken completed a US$1 billion Equity raise in July 2026.

Company guidance for FY27

Guidance is management's expectation, not a certainty., Origin guided to the following for FY27:

• Energy Markets EBITDA of $1,550 million to $1,850 million.

• APLNG production of 625 to 670 petajoules on a 100 per cent basis.

• APLNG Capital and operating expenditure of $3.0 billion to $3.3 billion.

The Energy Markets range sits below the FY26 outcome at both ends, with the top end around $150 million lower. That suggests management expects some of the recent retail and generation resilience to ease. Guidance excludes a $210 million Kraken equity investment paid in July 2026.

Sector conditions and competitive position

Australian energy retailers operate under regulated default prices and intense competition, while the market shifts towards renewables and storage. Batteries can capture price spreads and firm supply, which helps Origin manage wholesale exposure. The same trend reduces demand for gas-fired generation, as the quarter's lower gas volumes illustrate.

Origin's scale in retail customers and generation is a resilience, and its LNG exposure offers earnings that most domestic retailers lack, though it also adds volatility.

Risks and uncertainties

• Commodity exposure: APLNG revenue follows oil-linked pricing, so a fall in oil prices would reduce the gas contribution. The September quarter's revenue rise came largely from prices, not volumes.

• Retail margins: regulated pricing, customer churn, wholesale costs and policy changes can all compress Energy Markets earnings, and guidance implies some moderation.

• Transition execution: delivering the remaining battery capacity on time and managing the future of coal-fired generation involve cost and regulatory risk.

• Octopus and Kraken: results are small but exposed to UK market conditions and to the success of a technology platform with growth expectations.

What to watch next

Key items include progress on Eraring Battery 2 by March 2027, the half-year result for the six months to 31 December 2026, whether Energy Markets tracks within its guided range, and the direction of oil prices. Origin's dividend policy links payouts to free cash flow, so changes in cash generation and capital spending will also be relevant.