Key Highlights

• Third-quarter refinery production was 1,137 million litres (ML), down 9.2% on the prior corresponding period.

• Ampol expects fourth-quarter output of petrol, diesel and jet fuel to be about 150 ML lower than previously anticipated.

• The company also pushed back commissioning of its Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels project to the first quarter of 2027, though it expects no material Earnings impact from the change.

• Ampol completed its Acquisition of EG Australia in June 2026, and the company has said it expects annual synergies of $65 million to $80 million within two years.

Why has Ampol (ASX:ALD) extended maintenance at its Lytton refinery just as refining margins are running far above last year's levels? In its third-quarter 2026 trading update, released on 19 October 2026, Ampol said extra reliability work had been identified on the refinery's fluidised catalytic cracking unit (FCCU), which is now expected to restart in mid-November. The company says customer Supply is not expected to be affected, but the work trims higher-value fuel output in the final quarter.

What changed at Lytton

The Brisbane refinery is in a planned turnaround and inspection. Ampol identified additional reactor refractory relining on the FCCU and brought forward some crude unit maintenance. It has also decided to bring forward future maintenance activities.

Third-quarter refinery production was 1,137 million litres (ML), down 9.2% on the prior corresponding period. Ampol expects fourth-quarter output of petrol, diesel and jet fuel to be about 150 ML lower than previously anticipated.

That matters because Lytton is where Ampol captures refining margins, and every week of reduced throughput is a week with less exposure to them. The company also pushed back commissioning of its Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels project to the first quarter of 2027, though it expects no material earnings impact from the change.

What Ampol does and where earnings come from

Ampol is an Australian fuels and convenience retailer with operations in Australia, New Zealand and internationally. Its earnings come from several linked activities: sourcing and importing fuel, refining at Lytton, wholesale distribution, shipping and trading, and a convenience retail network.

The company describes the combination as an integrated supply chain. In practice, that means profit depends on international refining margins, the Australian dollar, fuel volumes, retail fuel margins and in-store sales, all moving at different times.

Convenience retail has become a larger part of the picture. Ampol completed its acquisition of EG Australia in June 2026, and the company has said it expects annual synergies of $65 million to $80 million within two years. In the update, management said early integration is on plan and that its confidence in the synergy targets has increased.

Results so far in 2026

The latest reported half-year, to 30 June 2026, was exceptional by Ampol's recent standards. of the unaudited result, replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) EBIT was about $1,350 million, compared with about $404 million a year earlier. The Lytton Refiner Margin averaged US$28.26 a barrel in that half.

The third-quarter update gave no absolute earnings figure. It said group RCOP EBIT grew compared with the 2025 second-half quarterly average, supported by the integrated supply chain and continued growth in convenience retail.

The Lytton Refiner Margin was US$23.92 a barrel in the third quarter, compared with US$10.64 a barrel a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026 it averaged US$27.05 a barrel, against US$8.45 in the same period of 2025.

Group sales Volume in the quarter was 6,245 ML, up 3.6%. The mix shifted materially:

• Convenience retail volumes rose 45% to 1,256 ML, though Ampol notes volumes were realigned for EG Australia and the 2025 comparatives were not restated.

• Australian wholesale volumes fell 19% to 2,081 ML, partly reflecting that realignment.

• International volumes rose 23% to 1,841 ML.

• New Zealand volumes fell 5.3% to 853 ML.

Retail fuel margins were broadly in line with the third quarter of 2025. In the core Ampol network, headline shop sales grew by double digits, with improvements in shop gross margin and average basket value.

Sector conditions and competitive position

Ampol said Middle East geopolitical tensions have escalated and fuel product supply remains constrained. It described market conditions as net favourable for its integrated supply chain, but cautioned that the unusual trading environment seen in the first half of 2026 has not recurred.

That is an important qualification. Refining margins are cyclical and driven by global supply disruptions that can reverse quickly.

Ampol's competitive position rests on scale: one of only a small number of Australian refineries, a national terminal and logistics network, and a large retail footprint. Its rivals include other fuel importers and retailers, and the structural shift towards electric vehicles is a longer-term pressure on Demand for liquid fuels.

The company is positioning for that shift. On 1 October 2026 it announced a proposed acquisition of Evie Networks, a public electric vehicle charging business. Completion is expected in the first half of 2027, subject to clearance from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. The first U-GO conversion was completed in early October.

Risks and what to watch

Several uncertainties stand out:

• Refinery execution. The FCCU restart is expected in mid-November. A delay would extend the lost output.

• Margin normalisation. Management has flagged that the first-half conditions have not recurred, and regional refining margins can fall as supply disruptions ease.

• Geopolitical supply risk. Escalating Middle East tensions affect both pricing and the availability of imported fuel.

• Integration and deal risk. The EG Australia synergies are targets rather than delivered results, and the Evie transaction needs regulatory clearance.

• Project timing. Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels commissioning has moved to the first quarter of 2027.

Ampol has not provided numerical earnings guidance in the update, and its group Capital Expenditure outlook is unchanged. Upcoming markers include the FCCU restart in mid-November, the ACCC's review of Evie, the ULSF commissioning in early 2027 and the company's next reporting update.

The takeaway

Ampol's update shows a Business benefiting from elevated refining margins and growing convenience retail earnings, while managing a longer maintenance programme at the Lytton refinery. The additional work looks aimed at improving reliability, but it comes with a modest hit to near-term output. The key questions for investors are how long supportive margins last and how well the EG integration delivers.