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Highlights

  • Aristocrat’s social casino revenue rose 4% in May, outpacing a 4% decline in peer revenue.

  • Jefferies expects continued market share gains and solid 2H25 growth from the Product Madness division.

  • The stock retains a consensus “buy” rating despite a 7.9% decline year-to-date.

Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX:ALL) has demonstrated resilience in the digital gaming segment, with new data highlighting a positive trend in the company’s social casino revenue performance. According to Jefferies, the slot machine manufacturer posted a 4% month-on-month increase in social casino revenue across both Android and iOS platforms in May 2025, based on figures compiled by analytics platform SensorTower.

In contrast, revenues for Aristocrat’s competitors in the social casino space reportedly fell by 4% over the same period. Jefferies noted that Aristocrat has steadily expanded its share in the social casino segment over the past 18 months and is well positioned to sustain this momentum going forward.

The brokerage firm also highlighted expectations for the company’s Product Madness division, anticipating revenue growth in the mid-single-digit range for the second half of fiscal year 2025. Product Madness, a key component of Aristocrat's digital portfolio, has played a vital role in driving the company's growth in virtual gaming and social casino products.

Despite a year-to-date share price decline of 7.9%, sentiment among analysts remains largely positive. Jefferies has maintained its “buy” rating on Aristocrat shares, setting a price target of AUD 63.03. Analyst consensus data from LSEG indicates that 3 out of 11 analysts currently rate the stock as a “strong buy,” with the remaining analysts assigning a “buy” rating. The average price target across the group stands at AUD 72.19 per share.

The encouraging performance in May and the steady expansion in market share are viewed as significant indicators of Aristocrat’s strategic progress in the digital gaming segment. The company’s ongoing investment in social casino platforms, coupled with robust analytics and targeted content development, appears to be resonating with users across mobile platforms.

While Aristocrat’s broader market performance has faced headwinds so far this year, the latest figures suggest a recovery path led by digital operations. The continued strength of the Product Madness division is likely to be a focal point for investors as the company prepares to report second-half results in the coming months.