Market forces rained on the parade of St Barbara Limited (ASX:SBM) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from dual analysts covering St Barbara is for revenues of AU$227m in 2024, implying a concerning 30% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of AU$253m in 2024. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on St Barbara, noting the substantial drop in revenue estimates in this update.

View our latest analysis for St Barbara  earnings-and-revenue-growth

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the St Barbara's past performance and to peers in the same industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 5.4% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 30% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 3.3% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately St Barbara is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on St Barbara after today.

Still got questions? We have estimates for St Barbara from its dual analysts out until 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management  invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.