We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (ASX:PAR) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

See our latest analysis for Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals

When Might Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. As at December 2021, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals had cash of AU$55m and no debt. Importantly, its cash burn was AU$32m over the trailing twelve months. That means it had a cash runway of around 20 months as of December 2021. Notably, one analyst forecasts that Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals will break even (at a free cash flow level) in about 2 years. Essentially, that means the company will either reduce its cash burn, or else require more cash. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time. debt-equity-history-analysis

How Is Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

In our view, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals doesn't yet produce significant amounts of operating revenue, since it reported just AU$66k in the last twelve months. As a result, we think it's a bit early to focus on the revenue growth, so we'll limit ourselves to looking at how the cash burn is changing over time. Over the last year its cash burn actually increased by 38%, which suggests that management are increasing investment in future growth, but not too quickly. However, the company's true cash runway will therefore be shorter than suggested above, if spending continues to increase. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Easily Can Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Raise Cash?

While Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals does have a solid cash runway, its cash burn trajectory may have some shareholders thinking ahead to when the company may need to raise more cash. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Since it has a market capitalisation of AU$201m, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals' AU$32m in cash burn equates to about 16% of its market value. As a result, we'd venture that the company could raise more cash for growth without much trouble, albeit at the cost of some dilution.

So, Should We Worry About Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals' Cash Burn?

On this analysis of Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals' cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its increasing cash burn has us a bit worried. One real positive is that at least one analyst is forecasting that the company will reach breakeven. Cash burning companies are always on the riskier side of things, but after considering all of the factors discussed in this short piece, we're not too worried about its rate of cash burn. Taking a deeper dive, we've spotted  3 warning signs for Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this freelist of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.