Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$4.6b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 13%, coming in at just US$0.17 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 4 warning signs about Super Micro Computer. View them for free.NasdaqGS:SMCI Earnings and Revenue Growth May 15th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Super Micro Computer from 14 analysts is for revenues of US$30.0b in 2026. If met, it would imply a huge 39% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 28% to US$2.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$33.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.32 in 2026. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers as well.

Check out our latest analysis for Super Micro Computer

The consensus price target fell 10% to US$42.69, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Super Micro Computer, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$93.00 and the most bearish at US$15.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Super Micro Computer's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 30% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 42% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.6% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Super Micro Computer is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Super Micro Computer's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Super Micro Computer going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted  4 warning signs for Super Micro Computer you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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