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If you are wondering whether National Australia Bank is still good value at around A$43.37, it helps to step back from the headline share price and look at what you are really paying for. The stock has posted returns of 2.4% over the last 7 days, 2.5% over the last 30 days, 2.3% year to date, 12.8% over 1 year, 57.9% over 3 years and 119.3% over 5 years, which has many investors asking what is already priced in and what might still be on the table. Recent coverage has continued to focus on National Australia Bank as one of the major Australian banks, with attention on how it is positioned within the domestic financial system and broader equity market. That backdrop helps frame the recent share price moves, as investors weigh sector wide conditions and company specific developments when assessing what they are willing to pay. On Simply Wall St's valuation framework, National Australia Bank has a value score of 1 out of 6. In this context, we will look at how traditional multiples and a discounted cash flow model assess the stock, and then finish with a different way to think about value that brings all of these views together.

National Australia Bank scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: National Australia Bank Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much value National Australia Bank creates over and above the return that equity investors require, rather than focusing on near term earnings alone.

For National Australia Bank, the starting point is book value of A$20.59 per share and a stable earnings figure of A$2.53 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 13 analysts. The average Return on Equity used in the model is 11.36%, compared with a cost of equity of A$1.72 per share. That gap feeds into an estimated excess return of A$0.81 per share.

The model also assumes a stable book value of A$22.24 per share, sourced from weighted future book value estimates from 10 analysts. Putting these pieces together, the Excess Returns framework produces an intrinsic value estimate of about A$40.52 per share.

Against a current share price around A$43.37, this points to the stock trading roughly 7.0% above the Excess Returns estimate. On this view, National Australia Bank appears a little on the expensive side.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

National Australia Bank is fairly valued according to our Excess Returns, but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

繼續閱讀

NAB Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for National Australia Bank.

Approach 2: National Australia Bank Price vs Earnings

For a profitable bank like National Australia Bank, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. Investors typically accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger earnings growth or perceive lower risk, and a lower P/E when growth expectations are more modest or risks feel higher.

National Australia Bank currently trades on a P/E of 19.55x. That sits above the Banks industry average of 11.11x and also above the peer group average of 18.47x. Simply comparing those numbers suggests the market is willing to pay a higher price for National Australia Bank’s earnings than for the sector overall.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for National Australia Bank is 21.27x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be, given factors such as the company’s earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market value and risk indicators. That makes it more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the industry average, which do not adjust for these company specific features. On this basis, National Australia Bank’s current P/E of 19.55x sits below the Fair Ratio of 21.27x, which indicates that the shares are somewhat undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUEDASX:NAB P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1418 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your National Australia Bank Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which let you attach a clear story to the numbers you are using for fair value, revenue, earnings and margins.

A Narrative is simply your view of a company, written as a story that is directly linked to a financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate, so you can see how your assumptions translate into a number you can compare with the market price.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives are available on the Community page, used by millions of investors, and they help you decide whether to buy, hold or sell by comparing your Fair Value to the current Price in a clear, structured way.

Because Narratives update automatically when new information such as news or earnings is added to the platform, you can quickly see how fresh data affects your view without rebuilding your analysis from scratch. For National Australia Bank, that might mean one investor sets a higher fair value based on a more optimistic earnings path, while another uses the same tools to support a lower fair value based on more cautious assumptions.

Do you think there's more to the story for National Australia Bank? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!ASX:NAB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include NAB.AX.

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