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If you are trying to work out whether Barrick Mining’s recent run still offers value, you are not alone. This article is built to help you focus on what the current price really reflects. The stock last closed at CA$63.85, with returns of 5.5% year to date and 146.9% over the past year, set against a 6.3% decline over the last 7 days and a 0.8% return over 30 days. This combination may have some investors reassessing risk and reward. Recent headlines around Barrick Mining have focused on the company’s position in the precious metals sector and its role in large scale mining projects. This often puts a spotlight on its sensitivity to commodity prices and capital allocation decisions. This mix of attention can help explain why the share price has seen both strong longer term returns and shorter term pullbacks. On our framework, Barrick Mining scores 4 out of 6 on valuation checks, and you can see the breakdown in our valuation score. Next we will walk through traditional valuation approaches, then finish with a way of thinking about valuation that goes beyond any single model.

Barrick Mining delivered 146.9% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry.

Approach 1: Barrick Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes the cash Barrick Mining is expected to generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to today to estimate what the business could be worth right now.

Barrick’s latest twelve month free cash flow is about $3.55b. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, analysts and extrapolated estimates project free cash flow of $5.40b in 2030, with a path that includes forecast years such as 2026 at $5.49b and 2027 at $7.02b. Beyond the explicit analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extends the projections to complete the 10 year cash flow profile.

When all these projected cash flows are discounted back and combined with an estimate for value beyond the forecast period, the model arrives at a DCF based intrinsic value of CA$76.70 per share. Compared with the recent share price of CA$63.85, this output suggests the stock is around 16.8% undervalued according to this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Barrick Mining is undervalued by 16.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 8 more high quality undervalued stocks.ABX Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Barrick Mining.

Story Continues

Approach 2: Barrick Mining Price vs Earnings

For a profitable business like Barrick Mining, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It helps link the share price directly to the company’s profit today, which many investors find easier to relate to than long term cash flow forecasts.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings appear. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually line up with a lower P/E.

Barrick Mining currently trades on a P/E of 15.7x, compared with the Metals and Mining industry average of 19.7x and a peer group average of 42.1x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Barrick Mining is 26.7x. The Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be based on factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and company specific risks.

Because the Fair Ratio folds in these company characteristics, it can be more tailored than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages. Against this Fair Ratio of 26.7x, Barrick Mining’s actual P/E of 15.7x screens as undervalued on this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUEDTSX:ABX P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Barrick Mining Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you and other investors attach a clear story about Barrick Mining to specific assumptions for revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value with today’s price, see it update automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive, and even line up very different views, such as one Narrative that assumes Barrick is worth around CA$31.15 and another that assumes value closer to CA$60.00, so you can decide which story you find more convincing.

For Barrick Mining however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Barrick Mining Narratives:

🐂 Barrick Mining Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative is set at CA$65.36 per share.

At the last close of CA$63.85, this narrative implies the shares are about 2.3% below its fair value estimate.

Revenue growth used in this narrative is 15.66%.

Emphasis on expanding gold and copper assets, efficiency work and longer life mines, with the aim of supporting higher margins and more consistent earnings over time. Focus on a stronger balance sheet, asset sales and capital returns, including dividends and buybacks, as tools to support shareholder returns and absorb project risk. Clear acknowledgement of political, ESG, ore grade and resource constraints, water and energy risks, and demand shifts that could affect profitability and valuation.

🐻 Barrick Mining Bear Case

Fair value in this more cautious narrative is set at CA$60.00 per share.

At the last close of CA$63.85, this narrative implies the shares are about 6.4% above its fair value estimate.

Revenue growth used in this narrative is 8.8%.

Views Barrick as modestly undervalued when the share price is around CA$48.07 with fair value near CA$55 to CA$56, mainly tied to gold’s role as a potential safe haven. Highlights expectations for moderate earnings growth from stable gold production and copper exposure, supported by a solid balance sheet and measured capital allocation. Flags gold price moves, U.S. fiscal developments, cost pressures and geopolitical tension as key factors that could shift perceived fair value toward CA$60 or back toward earlier levels.

Do you think there's more to the story for Barrick Mining? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!TSX:ABX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ABX.TO.

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