It's been a pretty great week for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$190 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$1.4b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.70, missing estimates by 3.4%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Texas Roadhouse after the latest results.

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Texas Roadhouse. Read for free now.NasdaqGS:TXRH Earnings and Revenue Growth May 13th 2025

After the latest results, the 25 analysts covering Texas Roadhouse are now predicting revenues of US$5.85b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 2.6% to US$6.71. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.83b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.85 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Texas Roadhouse

The consensus price target held steady at US$184, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Texas Roadhouse analyst has a price target of US$215 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$139. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Texas Roadhouse shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 164 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

Story Continues

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$184, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Texas Roadhouse going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted  1 warning sign for Texas Roadhouse you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

View Comments