Key Insights

The projected fair value for Trip.com Group is US$100 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of US$61.45 suggests Trip.com Group is potentially 39% undervalued Our fair value estimate is 35% higher than Trip.com Group's analyst price target of CN¥74.49

Does the May share price for Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Step By Step Through The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)  CN¥16.4b CN¥19.4b CN¥23.2b CN¥24.7b CN¥26.1b CN¥27.3b CN¥28.4b CN¥29.4b CN¥30.4b CN¥31.4b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x6 Est @ 6.61% Est @ 5.45% Est @ 4.64% Est @ 4.07% Est @ 3.68% Est @ 3.40% Est @ 3.20% Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7%  CN¥15.2k CN¥16.8k CN¥18.5k CN¥18.3k CN¥18.0k CN¥17.4k CN¥16.8k CN¥16.2k CN¥15.6k CN¥14.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥168b

Story Continues

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥31b× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.8%) = CN¥647b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥647b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= CN¥307b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥475b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$61.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.NasdaqGS:TCOM Discounted Cash Flow May 12th 2025

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Trip.com Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.151. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for Trip.com Group

SWOT Analysis for Trip.com Group

Strength

Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hospitality market.

Opportunity

Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.

Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Trip.com Group, there are three essential factors you should assess:

Financial Health: Does TCOM have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does TCOM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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