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Highlights

  • Macquarie Research maintains Outperform rating for Capstone Copper Corp. with a target price of AUD 12.50, implying a 22.91% upside.

  • CSC's Q2 2025 saw record copper production of 57,416 tonnes and record adjusted EBITDA of USD 215.6 million.

  • Mantoverde Optimised project sanctioned, extending mine life to 25 years and boosting annual copper output by 20,000 tonnes.

Macquarie Research has reaffirmed its confidence in Capstone Copper Corp. (ASX:CSC), maintaining an Outperform rating and setting a target price of AUD 12.50, representing a 22.91% potential upside from the current market price of AUD 9.655. The rating likely to comes in the wake of Capstone’s Q2 2025 performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly at its Mantoverde operations.

Operational Performance in Q2 2025

In the second quarter of 2025, Capstone Copper delivered record consolidated copper production of 57,416 tonnes at C1 cash costs of USD 2.45 per pound. Sulphide copper production reached 47,086 tonnes at USD 2.20 per pound, driven largely by the Mantoverde sulphides, which alone contributed 16,507 tonnes at industry-low costs of USD 1.51 per pound.

Copper sales for the quarter stood at 53,977 payable tonnes, slightly lower than production due to timing of shipments at Mantos Blancos. Despite this, the company achieved record adjusted EBITDA of USD 215.6 million, up from USD 123.1 million a year earlier, alongside adjusted net income of USD 27.5 million, or USD 0.04 per share.

Macquarie’s Rating Backed by Growth Outlook

According to Macquarie analyst Adam Baker, the reaffirmed Outperform rating reflects Capstone’s financial momentum, production profile, and long-term growth trajectory. The brokerage’s target of AUD 12.50 is supported by the company’s reaffirmed 2025 guidance of 220,000 to 255,000 tonnes of copper at cash costs between USD 2.20 and USD 2.50 per pound.

Higher output is anticipated in the second half of the year, driven by favorable mine sequencing at Mantoverde. 

Strategic Expansion: Mantoverde Optimized

On 8 August 2025, Capstone sanctioned the Mantoverde Optimized (MV-O) project following all necessary Board approvals. This brownfield expansion will increase concentrator throughput from 32,000 to 45,000 tonnes per day, adding 20,000 tonnes of copper and 6,000 ounces of gold annually while extending the mine life from 19 to 25 years.

The project builds on the successful ramp-up of Mantoverde sulphides in 2024 and aligns with the company’s strategy to maximise production efficiency and resource longevity.

Financial Position

Capstone also boosted its balance sheet during the quarter, completing a refinancing that included repayment of USD 477 million on the Mantoverde project finance facility, of which USD 334 million was its share. A new term loan for Mitsubishi Materials Corp.’s USD 145 million portion was arranged, featuring a two-year grace period and extended maturities.