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Highlights

  • Macquarie has reaffirmed an "Outperform" rating on Capstone Copper with a 12-month price target of AUD 11.60, offering a 35.5% upside from current levels.

  • The broker sees imminent upside catalysts, including the anticipated mid-year approval of the Mantoverde Optimised (MV-O) permit in Chile.

  • Capstone's Q1 performance included record copper production and EBITDA, driven by its Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos operations.

Capstone Copper (ASX:CSC) is in focus as major broker Macquarie forecasts gains for the ASX 200-listed copper miner, despite the stock dipping 1.5% on Friday to trade at AUD 8.56 per share. The weakness comes amid broader market concerns, including revived U.S. tariffs under the Trump-era policy framework.

Still, Capstone’s recent weakness hasn’t deterred analysts. While the stock remains down 22.5% over the past 12 months, it has rebounded sharply since its 9 April low, gaining 38.8%. And according to Macquarie, that recovery may be just the beginning.

In a fresh research note focused on Australian copper miners, Macquarie named Capstone Copper its top pick in the copper sector, citing positive developments at its flagship Chilean operation and an operational start to 2025.

Mantoverde Project Seen as Near-Term Catalyst

The centrepiece of Macquarie’s bullish view is Capstone’s Mantoverde Optimised (MV-O) expansion project. The miner is currently awaiting an amendment to its Environmental Impact Declaration (DIA), which would allow it to boost mill capacity from 32,000 to 45,000 tonnes per day. Approval is expected by mid-calendar year 2025, potentially within the next two months.

Macquarie views the company’s proactive decision to order USD 60 million in long-lead items—out of a total USD146 million capital budget.

Importantly, Capstone has noted that the capacity increase would not require major capital equipment upgrades, allowing it to leverage existing infrastructure and extend Mantoverde’s mine life from 19 to 25 years.

Operational Momentum

Capstone’s confidence is underpinned by a Q1 performance, with CEO John MacKenzie reporting record sulphide copper production at both Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos mines. The company also achieved record quarterly revenue and EBITDA.

Macquarie’s Target: AUD 11.60

Macquarie has reiterated its ‘Outperform’ rating on Capstone Copper, assigning a 12-month price target of AUD 11.60. From the current share price of AUD 8.56, that implies a potential upside of 35.5%.

Despite broader macro pressures and a recent slide in copper prices—now at USD 9,568 per tonne, down from USD10,457 a year ago.