Highlights

  • FMG posted record first-half shipments of 100.2Mt, shares trade at AUD 20.21 on 16 February 2026.
  • RIO shares at AUD 162.75 sit near Jefferies’ AUD 162 target after a 34.57% one-year rise.
  • BHP lifted copper production guidance, with broker targets ranging between AUD 46 and AUD 52.

Broker calls are sharpening investor focus on ASX blue chip mining stocks, with major houses weighing in after the January 2026 quarterly updates from Fortescue (ASX:FMG), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) and BHP (ASX:BHP). Jefferies has flagged an underperform rating on FMG with a AUD 17.20 target, while maintaining hold recommendations on RIO and BHP, the latter carrying price targets between AUD 46 and AUD 52 from leading brokers. As share prices trade near or above some analyst valuations, the latest guidance and production data released in January are shaping the debate over whether these mining heavyweights warrant a hold, fresh buying interest or portfolio trimming.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG)

Share price: AUD 20.21 (16 Feb)
1-year performance: +4.12%
1-month performance: −11.44%

Fortescue reported total iron ore shipments of 50.5 million tonnes in Q2 FY26, taking first-half shipments to a record 100.2Mt, up 3% year-on-year. Iron Bridge concentrate shipments reached 4.3Mt for the half.

Hematite C1 unit cost came in at USD 18.64 per wet metric tonne for H1 FY26, while quarterly hematite revenue averaged USD 93 per dry metric tonne. The company ended December with USD 4.7 billion in cash and net debt of USD 1.0 billion following capital expenditure of USD 759 million.

Fortescue also progressed its decarbonisation strategy with the delivery of a large-scale battery energy storage system in the Pilbara and moved to acquire the remaining shares in Alta Copper.

Jefferies has issued an underperform rating with a target price of AUD 17.20.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO)

Share price: AUD 162.75 (16 Feb)
1-year performance: +34.57%
1-month performance: +9.78%

Rio Tinto reported an 8% rise in copper equivalent production in 2025, with shipments up 5%. The ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi contributed to an 11% increase in annual copper output.

Pilbara iron ore operations recorded higher fourth-quarter production and shipments, while the Simandou project marked first shipments in Q4. Lithium production in Argentina reached quarterly records, and bauxite output hit a full-year high.

Jefferies maintains a hold rating with a target of AUD 162, broadly aligned with the current market price.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP)

Share price: AUD 50.36 (16 Feb)
1-year performance: +23.43%
1-month performance: +2.80%

BHP lifted FY26 copper production guidance for the Group, Escondida and Antamina. Record concentrator throughput at Escondida and higher output at NSW Energy Coal contributed to updated forecasts.

The miner entered a USD 2 billion infrastructure agreement involving WAIO power consumption and advanced copper growth projects in Argentina and Chile. Trials of battery-electric haul trucks commenced in the Pilbara.

Jefferies rates BHP a hold with a target of AUD 52, while HSBC Global Investment Research has a hold rating and AUD 46 target.

F&Q

  1. Why has FMG’s share price declined over the past month?
    FMG shares are down 11.44% over the month despite record shipments, with broker target prices sitting below the current market level.
  2. Is Rio Tinto trading above analyst targets?
    RIO is trading around AUD 162.75, close to Jefferies’ AUD 162 target, suggesting limited divergence from that valuation estimate.
  3. What is driving BHP’s production upgrades?
    Higher copper output at Escondida and improved operational performance across assets have supported increased FY26 production guidance.