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Highlights

  • Bell Potter raises price target on Develop Global to AUD 5.00, implying 18% upside.

  • Woodlawn project surpasses ramp-up expectations; production targets brought forward.

  • Sulphur Springs development progresses, with updated DFS expected by December 2025.

  • Earnings estimates revised following operational performance and lower WACC.

Shares of Develop Global Ltd (ASX:DVP) have attracted positive attention from analysts at Bell Potter, who have materially lifted their valuation of the Australian mining company following encouraging project developments.

In its latest update, the broker highlighted several operational milestones that have exceeded expectations—most notably at the company’s flagship Woodlawn copper-zinc-lead project in New South Wales. According to Bell Potter, commissioning activities at the Woodlawn processing plant are progressing at a stronger-than-anticipated pace, reaching rates of 750,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa). This figure represents approximately 90% of the plant’s nameplate capacity, with full ramp-up now expected one quarter earlier than previously forecast—by September 2025.

Metal recoveries are said to be tracking within company expectations, and underground mining activity is ramping steadily. Mining rates are anticipated to exceed 800ktpa by the December 2025 quarter. Additionally, the first parcels of copper, zinc, and lead concentrate have already been shipped, with the initial copper concentrate payment received from global commodities trader Trafigura, marking a key step in monetising production.

Bell Potter is also encouraged by progress at the Sulphur Springs development project, where substantial earthworks have commenced. The box cut excavation is scheduled for completion in the September 2025 quarter, after which decline development will begin. An updated Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is due by the December 2025 quarter, and is expected to provide refined operating parameters and cost projections for the asset.

In light of these developments, the broker has revised its earnings outlook for Develop Global. Adjustments reflect both a faster-than-expected production ramp-up at Woodlawn and a deferral of the Pioneer Dome project. Forecast changes include a 17% earnings uplift for FY26, while FY27 projections have been revised slightly lower. Bell Potter has also lowered its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) from 10.5% to 9.5%, reflecting reduced project risk and improved confidence in execution.

These changes have led to an upward revision in Bell Potter’s valuation model, resulting in a new price target of AUD 5.00 per share, up from AUD 4.00. Based on Develop Global’s current share price of AUD 4.23, this represents a potential upside of approximately 18% over the next 12 months.

The broker concludes that Develop Global has demonstrated significant execution capabilities at Woodlawn, achieving progress both on schedule and within budget. With the plant’s ramp-up expected to be fully underway by the first half of FY26, the company is well-positioned for a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS) in the coming financial year.