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Highlights

  • Origin Energy raises the lower end of its FY25 underlying EBITDA forecast to AU$1.3–AU$1.4 billion.

  • Company expects up to AU$100 million EBITDA loss from UK-based Octopus Energy amid warm weather and one-off factors.

Australian energy retailer Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG) has revised its fiscal year 2025 profit forecast, lifting the lower end of its earnings guidance due to better-than-expected operational performance and improved outcomes in its wholesale energy portfolio.

On Monday, the company updated its full-year underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) projection to a range of AU$1.3 billion to AU$1.4 billion. The revised outlook marks an increase from its previous range of AU$1.1 billion to AU$1.4 billion.

The upgrade comes despite setbacks from Origin’s overseas investment in Octopus Energy, a UK-based retail energy company. Origin now expects a loss of up to AU$100 million in its share of annual underlying EBITDA from Octopus Energy, citing unseasonably warm weather across March and April in the United Kingdom. The company also pointed to one-off impacts that further affected profitability. Origin had earlier forecasted a positive contribution of up to AU$100 million from the business.

In addition to the Octopus Energy impact, Origin previously flagged a reduction in its earnings from Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG), its major gas export venture. The revised outlook follows APLNG’s decision to lower prices on gas sales to Chinese energy firm Sinopec, a move that is expected to reduce Origin’s share of EBITDA for the six-month period ending June 2025.

Despite these challenges, Origin’s upgraded guidance highlights the resilience of its domestic operations, particularly in energy generation and retail. The company has benefited from financial performance in its wholesale energy markets, with improved pricing and operational efficiencies contributing to the earnings uplift.